As South Korea's president since June 2025, Lee Jae-myung holds constitutional immunity under Article 84 that bars criminal prosecution or arrest on pending charges except in cases of insurrection or treason through his term ending in 2030. Courts have indefinitely suspended all active trials on prior allegations including election-law violations, land-development graft, and alleged remittances to North Korea. The ruling Democratic Party has advanced special-counsel legislation to review and potentially cancel those indictments on grounds of political motivation, while Lee pursues diplomatic engagements with U.S. and Chinese counterparts. Opposition impeachment petitions lack sufficient legislative support to advance, and no new indictments breaching immunity have emerged in the past year. Traders therefore assign an 89 percent implied probability that no arrest occurs by December 31, 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLee Jae-myung arrestato prima del 2027?
Lee Jae-myung arrestato prima del 2027?
Sì
$319,036 Vol.
$319,036 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$319,036 Vol.
$319,036 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.As South Korea's president since June 2025, Lee Jae-myung holds constitutional immunity under Article 84 that bars criminal prosecution or arrest on pending charges except in cases of insurrection or treason through his term ending in 2030. Courts have indefinitely suspended all active trials on prior allegations including election-law violations, land-development graft, and alleged remittances to North Korea. The ruling Democratic Party has advanced special-counsel legislation to review and potentially cancel those indictments on grounds of political motivation, while Lee pursues diplomatic engagements with U.S. and Chinese counterparts. Opposition impeachment petitions lack sufficient legislative support to advance, and no new indictments breaching immunity have emerged in the past year. Traders therefore assign an 89 percent implied probability that no arrest occurs by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ET
Volume
$319,036Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.As South Korea's president since June 2025, Lee Jae-myung holds constitutional immunity under Article 84 that bars criminal prosecution or arrest on pending charges except in cases of insurrection or treason through his term ending in 2030. Courts have indefinitely suspended all active trials on prior allegations including election-law violations, land-development graft, and alleged remittances to North Korea. The ruling Democratic Party has advanced special-counsel legislation to review and potentially cancel those indictments on grounds of political motivation, while Lee pursues diplomatic engagements with U.S. and Chinese counterparts. Opposition impeachment petitions lack sufficient legislative support to advance, and no new indictments breaching immunity have emerged in the past year. Traders therefore assign an 89 percent implied probability that no arrest occurs by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$319,036Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...As South Korea's president since June 2025, Lee Jae-myung holds constitutional immunity under Article 84 that bars criminal prosecution or arrest on pending charges except in cases of insurrection or treason through his term ending in 2030. Courts have indefinitely suspended all active trials on prior allegations including election-law violations, land-development graft, and alleged remittances to North Korea. The ruling Democratic Party has advanced special-counsel legislation to review and potentially cancel those indictments on grounds of political motivation, while Lee pursues diplomatic engagements with U.S. and Chinese counterparts. Opposition impeachment petitions lack sufficient legislative support to advance, and no new indictments breaching immunity have emerged in the past year. Traders therefore assign an 89 percent implied probability that no arrest occurs by December 31, 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti