**South Korean President Lee Jae-myung faces negligible near-term impeachment risk through 2026, as the Democratic Party's legislative supermajority and recent electoral gains create high structural barriers.** The National Assembly holds sole authority to initiate impeachment under the constitution, and the ruling party's dominance—secured in the 2024 general election and reinforced by wins in 12 of 16 races during the June 2026 local elections—makes the required two-thirds vote improbable absent major defections. A June 2026 opposition petition gathered over 100,000 signatures but stalled without referral, reflecting limited cross-party momentum. Lee's term runs through 2030 with no intervening elections or automatic triggers, while his post-inauguration emphasis on pragmatic governance and national unity has sustained sufficient support among key voting blocs. Historical precedent from the Yoon Suk-yeol case shows impeachment requires sustained public and legislative consensus, conditions not currently evident. Traders price the "No" outcome at 93.8% largely due to these institutional and political realities rather than any single event.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?
Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?
6% probabilità
$19,133 Vol.
$19,133 Vol.
31 dic 2026
6% probabilità
$19,133 Vol.
$19,133 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.**South Korean President Lee Jae-myung faces negligible near-term impeachment risk through 2026, as the Democratic Party's legislative supermajority and recent electoral gains create high structural barriers.** The National Assembly holds sole authority to initiate impeachment under the constitution, and the ruling party's dominance—secured in the 2024 general election and reinforced by wins in 12 of 16 races during the June 2026 local elections—makes the required two-thirds vote improbable absent major defections. A June 2026 opposition petition gathered over 100,000 signatures but stalled without referral, reflecting limited cross-party momentum. Lee's term runs through 2030 with no intervening elections or automatic triggers, while his post-inauguration emphasis on pragmatic governance and national unity has sustained sufficient support among key voting blocs. Historical precedent from the Yoon Suk-yeol case shows impeachment requires sustained public and legislative consensus, conditions not currently evident. Traders price the "No" outcome at 93.8% largely due to these institutional and political realities rather than any single event.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET
Volume
$19,133Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.**South Korean President Lee Jae-myung faces negligible near-term impeachment risk through 2026, as the Democratic Party's legislative supermajority and recent electoral gains create high structural barriers.** The National Assembly holds sole authority to initiate impeachment under the constitution, and the ruling party's dominance—secured in the 2024 general election and reinforced by wins in 12 of 16 races during the June 2026 local elections—makes the required two-thirds vote improbable absent major defections. A June 2026 opposition petition gathered over 100,000 signatures but stalled without referral, reflecting limited cross-party momentum. Lee's term runs through 2030 with no intervening elections or automatic triggers, while his post-inauguration emphasis on pragmatic governance and national unity has sustained sufficient support among key voting blocs. Historical precedent from the Yoon Suk-yeol case shows impeachment requires sustained public and legislative consensus, conditions not currently evident. Traders price the "No" outcome at 93.8% largely due to these institutional and political realities rather than any single event.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$19,133Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**South Korean President Lee Jae-myung faces negligible near-term impeachment risk through 2026, as the Democratic Party's legislative supermajority and recent electoral gains create high structural barriers.** The National Assembly holds sole authority to initiate impeachment under the constitution, and the ruling party's dominance—secured in the 2024 general election and reinforced by wins in 12 of 16 races during the June 2026 local elections—makes the required two-thirds vote improbable absent major defections. A June 2026 opposition petition gathered over 100,000 signatures but stalled without referral, reflecting limited cross-party momentum. Lee's term runs through 2030 with no intervening elections or automatic triggers, while his post-inauguration emphasis on pragmatic governance and national unity has sustained sufficient support among key voting blocs. Historical precedent from the Yoon Suk-yeol case shows impeachment requires sustained public and legislative consensus, conditions not currently evident. Traders price the "No" outcome at 93.8% largely due to these institutional and political realities rather than any single event.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti