Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.2% for Barack Obama being arrested before 2027, reflecting the absence of any formal Department of Justice indictment, charges, or active criminal proceedings against the former president despite persistent political accusations. Recent rhetoric escalated with President Trump's May 12 sharing of a Truth Social post demanding Obama's arrest over alleged Obama-era misconduct in the 2016 Russia investigation, echoing DNI Tulsi Gabbard's 2025 document releases and referrals alleging conspiracy by Obama officials like John Brennan and James Clapper. However, prior DOJ reviews found insufficient evidence for prosecution, citing statute of limitations and lack of criminal grounds, with no grand jury outcomes or court dates advancing toward arrest amid legal barriers for former presidents. Late-breaking indictments or special counsel actions remain possible but unlikely without new primary evidence.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNUOVO
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31 dic 2026
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.2% for Barack Obama being arrested before 2027, reflecting the absence of any formal Department of Justice indictment, charges, or active criminal proceedings against the former president despite persistent political accusations. Recent rhetoric escalated with President Trump's May 12 sharing of a Truth Social post demanding Obama's arrest over alleged Obama-era misconduct in the 2016 Russia investigation, echoing DNI Tulsi Gabbard's 2025 document releases and referrals alleging conspiracy by Obama officials like John Brennan and James Clapper. However, prior DOJ reviews found insufficient evidence for prosecution, citing statute of limitations and lack of criminal grounds, with no grand jury outcomes or court dates advancing toward arrest amid legal barriers for former presidents. Late-breaking indictments or special counsel actions remain possible but unlikely without new primary evidence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ET
Volume
$7,481Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.2% for Barack Obama being arrested before 2027, reflecting the absence of any formal Department of Justice indictment, charges, or active criminal proceedings against the former president despite persistent political accusations. Recent rhetoric escalated with President Trump's May 12 sharing of a Truth Social post demanding Obama's arrest over alleged Obama-era misconduct in the 2016 Russia investigation, echoing DNI Tulsi Gabbard's 2025 document releases and referrals alleging conspiracy by Obama officials like John Brennan and James Clapper. However, prior DOJ reviews found insufficient evidence for prosecution, citing statute of limitations and lack of criminal grounds, with no grand jury outcomes or court dates advancing toward arrest amid legal barriers for former presidents. Late-breaking indictments or special counsel actions remain possible but unlikely without new primary evidence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,481Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.2% for Barack Obama being arrested before 2027, reflecting the absence of any formal Department of Justice indictment, charges, or active criminal proceedings against the former president despite persistent political accusations. Recent rhetoric escalated with President Trump's May 12 sharing of a Truth Social post demanding Obama's arrest over alleged Obama-era misconduct in the 2016 Russia investigation, echoing DNI Tulsi Gabbard's 2025 document releases and referrals alleging conspiracy by Obama officials like John Brennan and James Clapper. However, prior DOJ reviews found insufficient evidence for prosecution, citing statute of limitations and lack of criminal grounds, with no grand jury outcomes or court dates advancing toward arrest amid legal barriers for former presidents. Late-breaking indictments or special counsel actions remain possible but unlikely without new primary evidence.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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