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Elezioni·Elezioni Francesi

French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?

icon for French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Elezioni·Elezioni Francesi

French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?

$61,503 Vol.

23 apr 2027
Polymarket

$61,503 Vol.

Polymarket

Éric Zemmour

$1,211 Vol.

59%

Jordan Bardella

$4,888 Vol.

8%

Michel Barnier

$228 Vol.

13%

Valérie Pécresse

$476 Vol.

8%

Élisabeth Borne

$320 Vol.

14%

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$587 Vol.

7%

Jean Castex

$651 Vol.

7%

Gérald Darmanin

$389 Vol.

11%

Sébastien Lecornu

$1,721 Vol.

13%

François Bayrou

$553 Vol.

7%

Bernard Cazeneuve

$291 Vol.

61%

Carole Delga

$184 Vol.

12%

Olivier Faure

$2,047 Vol.

28%

François Hollande

$1,029 Vol.

34%

Raphaël Glucksmann

$7,741 Vol.

77%

Manuel Bompard

$2,929 Vol.

6%

Mathilde Panot

$17,061 Vol.

5%

Dominique de Villepin

$247 Vol.

50%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.French presidential candidate announcements for the 2027 election have accelerated in 2026 amid Macron's ineligibility for a third term and a fragmented political landscape. Marine Le Pen declared her candidacy in July following a court ruling that shortened her eligibility ban, while Gabriel Attal announced in May for the centrist Renaissance party and Bruno Retailleau secured The Republicans' nomination in April after an internal vote. Jean-Luc Mélenchon has also confirmed his left-wing bid, with Édouard Philippe preparing campaign events and Jordan Bardella positioned as a potential National Rally alternative. A crowded field of roughly 30 potential contenders reflects party divisions, polling trends favoring the far right, and procedural hurdles such as securing 500 elected endorsements. Key upcoming factors include further court decisions, party primaries or endorsements, and any late 2026 declarations that could shift trader assessments of likely runners.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot.

Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$61,503
Data di fine
23 apr 2027
Mercato aperto
Apr 22, 2026, 6:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.French presidential candidate announcements for the 2027 election have accelerated in 2026 amid Macron's ineligibility for a third term and a fragmented political landscape. Marine Le Pen declared her candidacy in July following a court ruling that shortened her eligibility ban, while Gabriel Attal announced in May for the centrist Renaissance party and Bruno Retailleau secured The Republicans' nomination in April after an internal vote. Jean-Luc Mélenchon has also confirmed his left-wing bid, with Édouard Philippe preparing campaign events and Jordan Bardella positioned as a potential National Rally alternative. A crowded field of roughly 30 potential contenders reflects party divisions, polling trends favoring the far right, and procedural hurdles such as securing 500 elected endorsements. Key upcoming factors include further court decisions, party primaries or endorsements, and any late 2026 declarations that could shift trader assessments of likely runners.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot.

Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$61,503
Data di fine
23 apr 2027
Mercato aperto
Apr 22, 2026, 6:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Correlati

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Domande frequenti

"French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 21 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Gabriel Attal" a 100%, seguito da "Jean-Luc Mélenchon" a 100%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 100¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 100% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" ha generato $61.5K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Apr 22, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?", esplora i 21 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" è "Gabriel Attal" a 100%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 100% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Jean-Luc Mélenchon" a 100%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.