Forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration indicate the highest temperature in Chengdu on October 6 will likely reach 26–27°C, aligning with market-implied odds favoring those outcomes at 26.5% and 38%. This stems from typical early-autumn conditions in the Sichuan Basin, where weakening monsoon influences and moderate subtropical high pressure support daytime highs near seasonal averages of 25–28°C, with light winds and partial cloud cover limiting further warming. Recent ensemble runs show minimal spread, though any increase in southerly flow or reduced humidity could push readings to 28°C or higher (15.5% implied). Traders weigh these variables against historical October variability, where daily maxima rarely exceed 30°C this late in the season. Updated model guidance expected overnight will refine resolution thresholds.