Recent official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate daytime highs of 27–32°C for July 3–4 amid partly cloudy skies and scattered showers, keeping trader consensus centered on 28–29°C outcomes. These conditions reflect typical early-July monsoon influences and moderate moisture convergence that limit solar heating, while subtle differences in model runs for cloud cover and timing of any rain distinguish the narrow spread among 28°C, 29°C, and 30°C probabilities. Hong Kong’s seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal July temperatures, driven by long-term warming trends, provides background support but yields to short-term synoptic variability near resolution. Updated HKO guidance and numerical weather prediction consensus over the next 48 hours will likely refine these market-implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Hong Kong on July 4?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 4?
30°C 44%
29°C 38%
28°C 11%
31°C 6%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 lug 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
4%
28°C
11%
29°C
38%
30°C
44%
31°C
6%
32°C
1%
33°C or higher
<1%
30°C 44%
29°C 38%
28°C 11%
31°C 6%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 lug 2026
23°C or below
$340 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$197 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$193 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$484 Vol.
1%
27°C
$358 Vol.
4%
28°C
$601 Vol.
11%
29°C
$862 Vol.
38%
30°C
$743 Vol.
44%
31°C
$907 Vol.
6%
32°C
$423 Vol.
1%
33°C or higher
$450 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate daytime highs of 27–32°C for July 3–4 amid partly cloudy skies and scattered showers, keeping trader consensus centered on 28–29°C outcomes. These conditions reflect typical early-July monsoon influences and moderate moisture convergence that limit solar heating, while subtle differences in model runs for cloud cover and timing of any rain distinguish the narrow spread among 28°C, 29°C, and 30°C probabilities. Hong Kong’s seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal July temperatures, driven by long-term warming trends, provides background support but yields to short-term synoptic variability near resolution. Updated HKO guidance and numerical weather prediction consensus over the next 48 hours will likely refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$5,557Data di fine
4 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate daytime highs of 27–32°C for July 3–4 amid partly cloudy skies and scattered showers, keeping trader consensus centered on 28–29°C outcomes. These conditions reflect typical early-July monsoon influences and moderate moisture convergence that limit solar heating, while subtle differences in model runs for cloud cover and timing of any rain distinguish the narrow spread among 28°C, 29°C, and 30°C probabilities. Hong Kong’s seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal July temperatures, driven by long-term warming trends, provides background support but yields to short-term synoptic variability near resolution. Updated HKO guidance and numerical weather prediction consensus over the next 48 hours will likely refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,557Data di fine
4 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate daytime highs of 27–32°C for July 3–4 amid partly cloudy skies and scattered showers, keeping trader consensus centered on 28–29°C outcomes. These conditions reflect typical early-July monsoon influences and moderate moisture convergence that limit solar heating, while subtle differences in model runs for cloud cover and timing of any rain distinguish the narrow spread among 28°C, 29°C, and 30°C probabilities. Hong Kong’s seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal July temperatures, driven by long-term warming trends, provides background support but yields to short-term synoptic variability near resolution. Updated HKO guidance and numerical weather prediction consensus over the next 48 hours will likely refine these market-implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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