Recent AEMET forecasts for Madrid show a maximum of 40°C on July 7 under stable high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly winds, following similar 39°C readings on July 6 and 8. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes, where 40°C holds the highest implied probability at 40%, followed by 41°C (19.5%) and 39°C (16%). Madrid’s continental climate amplifies summer heating through intense insolation and minimal nocturnal cooling, while the current pattern lacks strong advection of hotter Saharan air that could push extremes higher. Model consensus centers on 39–40°C, with typical 48-hour uncertainty of ±1–2°C from variables like boundary-layer mixing and exact wind shifts accounting for the spread into 38°C and 42°C bins. Spain’s record-warm first half of 2026 provides background context but has not altered the short-term guidance. Updated AEMET runs and ensemble outputs over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Madrid on July 7?
Highest temperature in Madrid on July 7?
39°C 47%
40°C 33%
38°C 14%
41°C 5.9%
NUOVO
$14,481 Vol.
NUOVO
$14,481 Vol.
7 lug 2026
36°C or below
1%
37°C
4%
38°C
14%
39°C
47%
40°C
33%
41°C
6%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C
<1%
45°C
<1%
46°C or higher
<1%
39°C 47%
40°C 33%
38°C 14%
41°C 5.9%
NUOVO
$14,481 Vol.
NUOVO
$14,481 Vol.
7 lug 2026
36°C or below
$1,175 Vol.
1%
37°C
$1,252 Vol.
4%
38°C
$1,789 Vol.
14%
39°C
$2,364 Vol.
47%
40°C
$2,772 Vol.
33%
41°C
$1,941 Vol.
6%
42°C
$1,491 Vol.
<1%
43°C
$272 Vol.
<1%
44°C
$639 Vol.
<1%
45°C
$285 Vol.
<1%
46°C or higher
$566 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET forecasts for Madrid show a maximum of 40°C on July 7 under stable high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly winds, following similar 39°C readings on July 6 and 8. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes, where 40°C holds the highest implied probability at 40%, followed by 41°C (19.5%) and 39°C (16%). Madrid’s continental climate amplifies summer heating through intense insolation and minimal nocturnal cooling, while the current pattern lacks strong advection of hotter Saharan air that could push extremes higher. Model consensus centers on 39–40°C, with typical 48-hour uncertainty of ±1–2°C from variables like boundary-layer mixing and exact wind shifts accounting for the spread into 38°C and 42°C bins. Spain’s record-warm first half of 2026 provides background context but has not altered the short-term guidance. Updated AEMET runs and ensemble outputs over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jul 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$14,481Data di fine
7 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET forecasts for Madrid show a maximum of 40°C on July 7 under stable high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly winds, following similar 39°C readings on July 6 and 8. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes, where 40°C holds the highest implied probability at 40%, followed by 41°C (19.5%) and 39°C (16%). Madrid’s continental climate amplifies summer heating through intense insolation and minimal nocturnal cooling, while the current pattern lacks strong advection of hotter Saharan air that could push extremes higher. Model consensus centers on 39–40°C, with typical 48-hour uncertainty of ±1–2°C from variables like boundary-layer mixing and exact wind shifts accounting for the spread into 38°C and 42°C bins. Spain’s record-warm first half of 2026 provides background context but has not altered the short-term guidance. Updated AEMET runs and ensemble outputs over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$14,481Data di fine
7 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent AEMET forecasts for Madrid show a maximum of 40°C on July 7 under stable high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly winds, following similar 39°C readings on July 6 and 8. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes, where 40°C holds the highest implied probability at 40%, followed by 41°C (19.5%) and 39°C (16%). Madrid’s continental climate amplifies summer heating through intense insolation and minimal nocturnal cooling, while the current pattern lacks strong advection of hotter Saharan air that could push extremes higher. Model consensus centers on 39–40°C, with typical 48-hour uncertainty of ±1–2°C from variables like boundary-layer mixing and exact wind shifts accounting for the spread into 38°C and 42°C bins. Spain’s record-warm first half of 2026 provides background context but has not altered the short-term guidance. Updated AEMET runs and ensemble outputs over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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