Recent short-range ensemble guidance from ECMWF, ICON, and DWD models indicates a warming trend into July 25 under building high pressure, with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds favoring daytime heating. Current model consensus points to a maximum near 28–30 °C at Munich’s urban stations, though spread in boundary-layer moisture and afternoon cloud development keeps 29–31 °C outcomes closely matched in the market. Official DWD observations through July 22–23 show daytime peaks climbing from the low 20s °C, consistent with the expected ridge amplification. Key resolution variables include exact peak timing, urban heat-island effects, and any late-day convective cooling that could cap the reading below 30 °C or allow brief excursions to 32 °C. Updated model runs and DWD briefings in the next 48 hours will narrow the range ahead of market resolution.