**Recent official forecasts and model consensus position 27–29°C as the dominant range for Seoul/Incheon’s September 2 high temperature, with 28°C carrying the highest market-implied probability (41%).** Korean Meteorological Administration guidance and multiple numerical models (including airport TAF data) indicate a daytime maximum near 27–28°C under partly to mostly cloudy skies, light west-to-northwesterly winds, and only a modest chance of light rain or drizzle that could cap peak readings. Climatologically, early September marks the tail end of the East Asian summer monsoon influence, with typical highs near 28–29°C before seasonal cooling accelerates later in the month; current conditions show no strong heat advection or clear-sky radiative heating that would push values to 30°C or above. The tight clustering of probabilities around 27–29°C (collectively over 90%) reflects traders’ aggregation of these converging short-range forecasts, while the low odds on 26°C or lower and 30°C+ acknowledge residual uncertainty from cloud timing, localized sea-breeze effects near Incheon, and minor model spread. Updated model runs and any KMA briefing on September 2 morning conditions will be the key near-term catalysts for shifts in these implied probabilities.