Trader consensus positions 32°C as the leading outcome for Shanghai's July 4 daily high at 36% implied probability, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from global models showing peak readings clustered near seasonal norms for early July in eastern China. These projections incorporate current atmospheric patterns, including subtropical high pressure and moisture advection that typically moderate extremes while allowing urban heat effects to add 1–2°C locally. Supporting outcomes at 31°C and 33°C reflect model spread and minor uncertainties in cloud cover or wind, with historical data indicating July maxima most often fall between 30–35°C absent strong heatwave setups. Refined model updates over the next 48 hours will likely tighten these market-implied odds as resolution approaches.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Shanghai on July 4?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 4?
33°C 31%
34°C 22%
32°C 22%
35°C 12%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 lug 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
2%
31°C
7%
32°C
22%
33°C
31%
34°C
22%
35°C
12%
36°C
1%
37°C
1%
38°C or higher
<1%
33°C 31%
34°C 22%
32°C 22%
35°C 12%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 lug 2026
28°C or below
$763 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$715 Vol.
1%
30°C
$895 Vol.
2%
31°C
$674 Vol.
7%
32°C
$438 Vol.
22%
33°C
$395 Vol.
31%
34°C
$109 Vol.
22%
35°C
$88 Vol.
12%
36°C
$283 Vol.
1%
37°C
$515 Vol.
1%
38°C or higher
$330 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus positions 32°C as the leading outcome for Shanghai's July 4 daily high at 36% implied probability, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from global models showing peak readings clustered near seasonal norms for early July in eastern China. These projections incorporate current atmospheric patterns, including subtropical high pressure and moisture advection that typically moderate extremes while allowing urban heat effects to add 1–2°C locally. Supporting outcomes at 31°C and 33°C reflect model spread and minor uncertainties in cloud cover or wind, with historical data indicating July maxima most often fall between 30–35°C absent strong heatwave setups. Refined model updates over the next 48 hours will likely tighten these market-implied odds as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$5,205Data di fine
4 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus positions 32°C as the leading outcome for Shanghai's July 4 daily high at 36% implied probability, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from global models showing peak readings clustered near seasonal norms for early July in eastern China. These projections incorporate current atmospheric patterns, including subtropical high pressure and moisture advection that typically moderate extremes while allowing urban heat effects to add 1–2°C locally. Supporting outcomes at 31°C and 33°C reflect model spread and minor uncertainties in cloud cover or wind, with historical data indicating July maxima most often fall between 30–35°C absent strong heatwave setups. Refined model updates over the next 48 hours will likely tighten these market-implied odds as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,205Data di fine
4 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus positions 32°C as the leading outcome for Shanghai's July 4 daily high at 36% implied probability, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from global models showing peak readings clustered near seasonal norms for early July in eastern China. These projections incorporate current atmospheric patterns, including subtropical high pressure and moisture advection that typically moderate extremes while allowing urban heat effects to add 1–2°C locally. Supporting outcomes at 31°C and 33°C reflect model spread and minor uncertainties in cloud cover or wind, with historical data indicating July maxima most often fall between 30–35°C absent strong heatwave setups. Refined model updates over the next 48 hours will likely tighten these market-implied odds as resolution approaches.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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