Latest ensemble forecasts from regional models position 31–33°C as the most probable range for Taipei’s October 13 maximum, driven by persistent high pressure, light northeasterly flow, and mostly clear skies that favor strong daytime heating. These conditions align with an established El Niño episode, which has contributed to above-normal October temperatures across parts of East Asia. Central Weather Administration guidance currently shows a 22–30°C daytime range, yet recent runs suggest potential for modest upward revision if insolation remains high and boundary-layer mixing stays limited. Traders have concentrated implied probability on 32°C, reflecting confidence in these near-term dynamics while acknowledging that small shifts in cloud timing or wind speed could alter the daily peak before official observations finalize.