Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance shows mostly cloudy conditions over Tokyo on July 1, limiting solar heating and anchoring maximum temperatures near 27–28 °C. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes, reflecting minimal model spread in the short-range window and the lingering influence of the baiu frontal zone, which favors persistent cloud cover and reduced diurnal temperature range. Historical early-July baselines in Tokyo average 28–29 °C under clearer regimes, but current synoptic patterns and urban heat-island moderation under overcast skies support the observed trader consensus. Ensembles indicate low odds for 30 °C or higher without a rapid clearance, while probabilities below 26 °C remain slim absent stronger onshore flow. Updated JMA briefings and next model cycles will be the primary catalysts for any shift.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Tokyo on July 1?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 1?
28°C 34%
27°C 29%
29°C 16%
26°C 13%
NUOVO
$21,802 Vol.
NUOVO
$21,802 Vol.
1 lug 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
4%
26°C
13%
27°C
29%
28°C
34%
29°C
16%
30°C
5%
31°C
2%
32°C or higher
2%
28°C 34%
27°C 29%
29°C 16%
26°C 13%
NUOVO
$21,802 Vol.
NUOVO
$21,802 Vol.
1 lug 2026
22°C or below
$5,312 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$1,472 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$696 Vol.
1%
25°C
$573 Vol.
4%
26°C
$816 Vol.
13%
27°C
$4,928 Vol.
29%
28°C
$3,779 Vol.
34%
29°C
$1,227 Vol.
16%
30°C
$743 Vol.
5%
31°C
$515 Vol.
2%
32°C or higher
$1,742 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance shows mostly cloudy conditions over Tokyo on July 1, limiting solar heating and anchoring maximum temperatures near 27–28 °C. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes, reflecting minimal model spread in the short-range window and the lingering influence of the baiu frontal zone, which favors persistent cloud cover and reduced diurnal temperature range. Historical early-July baselines in Tokyo average 28–29 °C under clearer regimes, but current synoptic patterns and urban heat-island moderation under overcast skies support the observed trader consensus. Ensembles indicate low odds for 30 °C or higher without a rapid clearance, while probabilities below 26 °C remain slim absent stronger onshore flow. Updated JMA briefings and next model cycles will be the primary catalysts for any shift.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$21,802Data di fine
1 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance shows mostly cloudy conditions over Tokyo on July 1, limiting solar heating and anchoring maximum temperatures near 27–28 °C. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes, reflecting minimal model spread in the short-range window and the lingering influence of the baiu frontal zone, which favors persistent cloud cover and reduced diurnal temperature range. Historical early-July baselines in Tokyo average 28–29 °C under clearer regimes, but current synoptic patterns and urban heat-island moderation under overcast skies support the observed trader consensus. Ensembles indicate low odds for 30 °C or higher without a rapid clearance, while probabilities below 26 °C remain slim absent stronger onshore flow. Updated JMA briefings and next model cycles will be the primary catalysts for any shift.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$21,802Data di fine
1 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance shows mostly cloudy conditions over Tokyo on July 1, limiting solar heating and anchoring maximum temperatures near 27–28 °C. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes, reflecting minimal model spread in the short-range window and the lingering influence of the baiu frontal zone, which favors persistent cloud cover and reduced diurnal temperature range. Historical early-July baselines in Tokyo average 28–29 °C under clearer regimes, but current synoptic patterns and urban heat-island moderation under overcast skies support the observed trader consensus. Ensembles indicate low odds for 30 °C or higher without a rapid clearance, while probabilities below 26 °C remain slim absent stronger onshore flow. Updated JMA briefings and next model cycles will be the primary catalysts for any shift.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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