Recent JMA guidance and ensemble models point to persistent cloud cover with scattered showers over Tokyo on July 3, limiting daytime heating and anchoring maximum temperatures near 24–25 °C. These conditions align with the market’s leading outcomes (25 °C at 29.5 %, 24 °C at 17.5 %), as traders weigh the moderating effects of reduced insolation against the seasonal climatology of 28–30 °C July highs. Lingering early-summer monsoon moisture and variable steering patterns introduce forecast spread, reflected in the broad probability distribution; revised model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift odds toward higher or lower bins.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Tokyo on July 3?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 3?
26°C 46%
25°C 37%
27°C 6.9%
24°C 7%
NUOVO
$30,815 Vol.
NUOVO
$30,815 Vol.
3 lug 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
7%
25°C
37%
26°C
46%
27°C
7%
28°C
2%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
26°C 46%
25°C 37%
27°C 6.9%
24°C 7%
NUOVO
$30,815 Vol.
NUOVO
$30,815 Vol.
3 lug 2026
21°C or below
$1,614 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,053 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$3,904 Vol.
1%
24°C
$2,891 Vol.
7%
25°C
$4,427 Vol.
37%
26°C
$8,918 Vol.
46%
27°C
$1,209 Vol.
7%
28°C
$3,386 Vol.
2%
29°C
$1,192 Vol.
1%
30°C
$1,039 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$1,183 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA guidance and ensemble models point to persistent cloud cover with scattered showers over Tokyo on July 3, limiting daytime heating and anchoring maximum temperatures near 24–25 °C. These conditions align with the market’s leading outcomes (25 °C at 29.5 %, 24 °C at 17.5 %), as traders weigh the moderating effects of reduced insolation against the seasonal climatology of 28–30 °C July highs. Lingering early-summer monsoon moisture and variable steering patterns introduce forecast spread, reflected in the broad probability distribution; revised model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift odds toward higher or lower bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jul 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$30,815Data di fine
3 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA guidance and ensemble models point to persistent cloud cover with scattered showers over Tokyo on July 3, limiting daytime heating and anchoring maximum temperatures near 24–25 °C. These conditions align with the market’s leading outcomes (25 °C at 29.5 %, 24 °C at 17.5 %), as traders weigh the moderating effects of reduced insolation against the seasonal climatology of 28–30 °C July highs. Lingering early-summer monsoon moisture and variable steering patterns introduce forecast spread, reflected in the broad probability distribution; revised model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift odds toward higher or lower bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$30,815Data di fine
3 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent JMA guidance and ensemble models point to persistent cloud cover with scattered showers over Tokyo on July 3, limiting daytime heating and anchoring maximum temperatures near 24–25 °C. These conditions align with the market’s leading outcomes (25 °C at 29.5 %, 24 °C at 17.5 %), as traders weigh the moderating effects of reduced insolation against the seasonal climatology of 28–30 °C July highs. Lingering early-summer monsoon moisture and variable steering patterns introduce forecast spread, reflected in the broad probability distribution; revised model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift odds toward higher or lower bins.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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