Stable high-pressure ridging over central Europe and light southerly flow are sustaining above-average warmth for early October in Warsaw, with forecast models converging on a daytime maximum of 21–22 °C under mostly clear to hazy skies. Light winds and strong insolation should allow temperatures to peak in the afternoon, though modest differences in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover across ensembles keep the precise value uncertain. Historical early-October maxima average near 15–17 °C, so this pattern represents a notable positive anomaly driven by the current synoptic setup. Updated model runs and observational data through October 2 will refine the final maximum before market resolution.