**The primary driver of balanced trader odds across all geomagnetic storm thresholds for October 2 is the anticipated glancing blow from the September 28 coronal mass ejection (CME), with NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center forecasting a peak 3-hour Kp of 4.67—borderline G1 (minor storm)—during the 15–18 UTC window on October 2.** This CME’s partial Earth-directed component creates genuine uncertainty in impact strength, as glancing encounters often produce unsettled-to-active conditions (Kp 3–4) rather than full G1 unless the interplanetary magnetic field’s southward Bz component sustains reconnection long enough to push Kp to 5 or above. Model ensembles show wide spreads in arrival timing and solar wind parameters, limiting the chance of G2 (Kp 6) or higher while leaving room for outcomes to stay below G1. Updated forecasts and real-time solar wind data from DSCOVR will be the key near-term catalysts.