**A cold southerly outbreak and polar air mass are driving the near-certain market consensus around a 9°C daily maximum in Wellington on August 5.** Official MetService forecasts show a high of 8°C under showers that ease during the day, with southerly gales early and frost developing overnight; similar guidance from the Met Office lists a maximum of 8°C. This aligns with a recent polar blast that advected Antarctic air northward, suppressing temperatures well below the long-term August average of roughly 12°C and producing the observed market-implied probability of 98% for 9°C. National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) seasonal outlooks had flagged near-average conditions overall, yet the specific synoptic setup—a strong high-pressure system to the east combined with a sharp southerly flow—has delivered the current cold anomaly. Resolution hinges on official maximum readings at Wellington’s primary observing sites; minor forecast adjustments of 1°C remain possible if cloud cover or wind patterns shift, but model consensus and observed conditions make significant departures unlikely.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a Wellington il 5 agosto?
La temperatura più alta a Wellington il 5 agosto?
9°C 98.0%
10°C <1%
3°C or below <1%
4°C <1%
$174,071 Vol.
$174,071 Vol.
5 ago 2026
3°C or below
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
98%
10°C
1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C or higher
<1%
9°C 98.0%
10°C <1%
3°C or below <1%
4°C <1%
$174,071 Vol.
$174,071 Vol.
5 ago 2026
3°C or below
$1,150 Vol.
<1%
4°C
$1,080 Vol.
<1%
5°C
$3,076 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$21,476 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$31,419 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$63,623 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$18,169 Vol.
98%
10°C
$15,131 Vol.
1%
11°C
$11,549 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$4,041 Vol.
<1%
13°C or higher
$3,383 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**A cold southerly outbreak and polar air mass are driving the near-certain market consensus around a 9°C daily maximum in Wellington on August 5.** Official MetService forecasts show a high of 8°C under showers that ease during the day, with southerly gales early and frost developing overnight; similar guidance from the Met Office lists a maximum of 8°C. This aligns with a recent polar blast that advected Antarctic air northward, suppressing temperatures well below the long-term August average of roughly 12°C and producing the observed market-implied probability of 98% for 9°C.
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) seasonal outlooks had flagged near-average conditions overall, yet the specific synoptic setup—a strong high-pressure system to the east combined with a sharp southerly flow—has delivered the current cold anomaly. Resolution hinges on official maximum readings at Wellington’s primary observing sites; minor forecast adjustments of 1°C remain possible if cloud cover or wind patterns shift, but model consensus and observed conditions make significant departures unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$174,071Data di fine
5 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**A cold southerly outbreak and polar air mass are driving the near-certain market consensus around a 9°C daily maximum in Wellington on August 5.** Official MetService forecasts show a high of 8°C under showers that ease during the day, with southerly gales early and frost developing overnight; similar guidance from the Met Office lists a maximum of 8°C. This aligns with a recent polar blast that advected Antarctic air northward, suppressing temperatures well below the long-term August average of roughly 12°C and producing the observed market-implied probability of 98% for 9°C.
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) seasonal outlooks had flagged near-average conditions overall, yet the specific synoptic setup—a strong high-pressure system to the east combined with a sharp southerly flow—has delivered the current cold anomaly. Resolution hinges on official maximum readings at Wellington’s primary observing sites; minor forecast adjustments of 1°C remain possible if cloud cover or wind patterns shift, but model consensus and observed conditions make significant departures unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$174,071Data di fine
5 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**A cold southerly outbreak and polar air mass are driving the near-certain market consensus around a 9°C daily maximum in Wellington on August 5.** Official MetService forecasts show a high of 8°C under showers that ease during the day, with southerly gales early and frost developing overnight; similar guidance from the Met Office lists a maximum of 8°C. This aligns with a recent polar blast that advected Antarctic air northward, suppressing temperatures well below the long-term August average of roughly 12°C and producing the observed market-implied probability of 98% for 9°C. National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) seasonal outlooks had flagged near-average conditions overall, yet the specific synoptic setup—a strong high-pressure system to the east combined with a sharp southerly flow—has delivered the current cold anomaly. Resolution hinges on official maximum readings at Wellington’s primary observing sites; minor forecast adjustments of 1°C remain possible if cloud cover or wind patterns shift, but model consensus and observed conditions make significant departures unlikely.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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