**Forecast models and official guidance position 10–11°C as the most probable daily maximum for Wellington on August 6, 2026.** MetService currently projects a high of 10°C under mainly sunny conditions with breezy southerly to southwesterly winds, while longer-range guidance and climatological normals for early August cluster near 11–12°C. Cooler-than-average conditions this week, driven by recent southerly flow and clearing skies after showers, have suppressed daytime warming and support the market’s heavy weighting toward these two outcomes. NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region through August, consistent with the narrow 10–12°C cluster holding over 95% of implied probability. Minor upward revisions in some ensemble members or a slight easing of winds could nudge the maximum to 11°C, explaining its narrow lead, while 12°C remains a lower-probability outlier requiring stronger northerly influence. No major model shifts have occurred in the past 24–48 hours, keeping trader focus tightly on the next MetService update and any late adjustments to wind or cloud cover.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a Wellington il 6 agosto?
La temperatura più alta a Wellington il 6 agosto?
11°C 55%
10°C 34%
12°C 9%
9°C 4%
NUOVO
$27,586 Vol.
NUOVO
$27,586 Vol.
6 ago 2026
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
4%
10°C
34%
11°C
55%
12°C
9%
13°C
1%
14°C
<1%
15°C or higher
<1%
11°C 55%
10°C 34%
12°C 9%
9°C 4%
NUOVO
$27,586 Vol.
NUOVO
$27,586 Vol.
6 ago 2026
5°C or below
$373 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$353 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$581 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$2,141 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$3,701 Vol.
4%
10°C
$4,394 Vol.
34%
11°C
$5,662 Vol.
55%
12°C
$4,967 Vol.
9%
13°C
$3,496 Vol.
1%
14°C
$577 Vol.
<1%
15°C or higher
$1,347 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance position 10–11°C as the most probable daily maximum for Wellington on August 6, 2026.** MetService currently projects a high of 10°C under mainly sunny conditions with breezy southerly to southwesterly winds, while longer-range guidance and climatological normals for early August cluster near 11–12°C. Cooler-than-average conditions this week, driven by recent southerly flow and clearing skies after showers, have suppressed daytime warming and support the market’s heavy weighting toward these two outcomes.
NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region through August, consistent with the narrow 10–12°C cluster holding over 95% of implied probability. Minor upward revisions in some ensemble members or a slight easing of winds could nudge the maximum to 11°C, explaining its narrow lead, while 12°C remains a lower-probability outlier requiring stronger northerly influence. No major model shifts have occurred in the past 24–48 hours, keeping trader focus tightly on the next MetService update and any late adjustments to wind or cloud cover.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$27,586Data di fine
6 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance position 10–11°C as the most probable daily maximum for Wellington on August 6, 2026.** MetService currently projects a high of 10°C under mainly sunny conditions with breezy southerly to southwesterly winds, while longer-range guidance and climatological normals for early August cluster near 11–12°C. Cooler-than-average conditions this week, driven by recent southerly flow and clearing skies after showers, have suppressed daytime warming and support the market’s heavy weighting toward these two outcomes.
NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region through August, consistent with the narrow 10–12°C cluster holding over 95% of implied probability. Minor upward revisions in some ensemble members or a slight easing of winds could nudge the maximum to 11°C, explaining its narrow lead, while 12°C remains a lower-probability outlier requiring stronger northerly influence. No major model shifts have occurred in the past 24–48 hours, keeping trader focus tightly on the next MetService update and any late adjustments to wind or cloud cover.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$27,586Data di fine
6 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and official guidance position 10–11°C as the most probable daily maximum for Wellington on August 6, 2026.** MetService currently projects a high of 10°C under mainly sunny conditions with breezy southerly to southwesterly winds, while longer-range guidance and climatological normals for early August cluster near 11–12°C. Cooler-than-average conditions this week, driven by recent southerly flow and clearing skies after showers, have suppressed daytime warming and support the market’s heavy weighting toward these two outcomes. NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region through August, consistent with the narrow 10–12°C cluster holding over 95% of implied probability. Minor upward revisions in some ensemble members or a slight easing of winds could nudge the maximum to 11°C, explaining its narrow lead, while 12°C remains a lower-probability outlier requiring stronger northerly influence. No major model shifts have occurred in the past 24–48 hours, keeping trader focus tightly on the next MetService update and any late adjustments to wind or cloud cover.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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