**Latest numerical weather prediction models converge on a daytime maximum of 32–33°C for Shenzhen on August 5 under subtropical high pressure, typical mid-summer humidity above 70%, and light variable winds.** Afternoon convection and possible showers introduce the main uncertainty, with stronger development potentially limiting the peak near 32°C while clearer intervals allow brief stronger insolation to reach 33°C. Coastal location and urban heat island effects at the official station produce only modest additional variance. Historical early-August climatology centers near 32°C, aligning with the near-even 45.5% market-implied odds on 32°C versus 33°C and the sharp drop-off beyond 34°C. Updated model runs and real-time observations from the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau will refine these probabilities through the afternoon.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a Shenzhen il 5 agosto?
La temperatura più alta a Shenzhen il 5 agosto?
32°C 48%
33°C 35%
34°C 8%
31°C 5%
$86,609 Vol.
$86,609 Vol.
5 ago 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
5%
32°C
48%
33°C
36%
34°C
8%
35°C
1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 48%
33°C 35%
34°C 8%
31°C 5%
$86,609 Vol.
$86,609 Vol.
5 ago 2026
27°C or below
$566 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,921 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$4,738 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$3,856 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$9,413 Vol.
5%
32°C
$9,520 Vol.
48%
33°C
$8,059 Vol.
36%
34°C
$6,383 Vol.
8%
35°C
$10,247 Vol.
1%
36°C
$10,318 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$21,590 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest numerical weather prediction models converge on a daytime maximum of 32–33°C for Shenzhen on August 5 under subtropical high pressure, typical mid-summer humidity above 70%, and light variable winds.**
Afternoon convection and possible showers introduce the main uncertainty, with stronger development potentially limiting the peak near 32°C while clearer intervals allow brief stronger insolation to reach 33°C. Coastal location and urban heat island effects at the official station produce only modest additional variance. Historical early-August climatology centers near 32°C, aligning with the near-even 45.5% market-implied odds on 32°C versus 33°C and the sharp drop-off beyond 34°C. Updated model runs and real-time observations from the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau will refine these probabilities through the afternoon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$86,609Data di fine
5 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest numerical weather prediction models converge on a daytime maximum of 32–33°C for Shenzhen on August 5 under subtropical high pressure, typical mid-summer humidity above 70%, and light variable winds.**
Afternoon convection and possible showers introduce the main uncertainty, with stronger development potentially limiting the peak near 32°C while clearer intervals allow brief stronger insolation to reach 33°C. Coastal location and urban heat island effects at the official station produce only modest additional variance. Historical early-August climatology centers near 32°C, aligning with the near-even 45.5% market-implied odds on 32°C versus 33°C and the sharp drop-off beyond 34°C. Updated model runs and real-time observations from the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau will refine these probabilities through the afternoon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$86,609Data di fine
5 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Latest numerical weather prediction models converge on a daytime maximum of 32–33°C for Shenzhen on August 5 under subtropical high pressure, typical mid-summer humidity above 70%, and light variable winds.** Afternoon convection and possible showers introduce the main uncertainty, with stronger development potentially limiting the peak near 32°C while clearer intervals allow brief stronger insolation to reach 33°C. Coastal location and urban heat island effects at the official station produce only modest additional variance. Historical early-August climatology centers near 32°C, aligning with the near-even 45.5% market-implied odds on 32°C versus 33°C and the sharp drop-off beyond 34°C. Updated model runs and real-time observations from the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau will refine these probabilities through the afternoon.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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