Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and NOAA models, incorporating the persistent marine layer and sea breeze typical of San Francisco in early August, positioned the daily maximum near the seasonal average of 69–73°F. These conditions limited inland heat advection, keeping observed and projected highs firmly in the low 70s range according to multiple model runs and station data leading into August 4. Trader consensus at 97.5% implied probability for 72–73°F reflects this strong alignment between climatological baselines, real-time observations, and minimal forecast spread. A sudden model shift showing stronger offshore flow or delayed marine intrusion could have altered outcomes, though such developments remained unlikely given stable atmospheric patterns through the period.