Météo-France forecasts a cooldown for Paris on August 6, with largely sunny skies supporting a daytime maximum of 26°C after recent warmer conditions, driving the market’s tight clustering around 25–26°C outcomes. Ensemble model guidance and observational trends from the past week highlight moderating Atlantic flow and reduced subsidence, limiting afternoon heating compared to typical early-August climatology of 24–25°C highs. Minor forecast spread stems from uncertainties in boundary-layer moisture and local urban heat-island effects, which could nudge the peak by 1°C either way depending on the final model runs issued overnight. Trader consensus therefore prices modest upside risk above 26°C while assigning low probability to extremes outside the 24–27°C window.