El Niño conditions have emerged in the equatorial Pacific as of early June 2026, with the latest NOAA advisory confirming a Niño-3.4 index of +0.7°C and subsurface warmth supporting further intensification through the Northern Hemisphere winter. This development, following a weaker La Niña phase in 2025, serves as the dominant near-term driver elevating trader-implied odds for a June global temperature anomaly in the 1.15–1.19°C range relative to the pre-industrial baseline. Official monitoring from NOAA and Copernicus shows May 2026 already ranking as the second-warmest May on record, consistent with the warming influence of positive sea-surface temperature anomalies across the central and eastern Pacific. Model consensus points to continued El Niño strengthening, though short-term variability in atmospheric response and exact June measurements introduce modest uncertainty around the central bin.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 57%
1.10–1.14ºC 24%
1.20–1.24ºC 11%
<1.10ºC 4%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 giu 2026
<1.10ºC
4%
1.10–1.14ºC
24%
1.15–1.19ºC
57%
1.20–1.24ºC
11%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
2%
1.15–1.19ºC 57%
1.10–1.14ºC 24%
1.20–1.24ºC 11%
<1.10ºC 4%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 giu 2026
<1.10ºC
$315 Vol.
4%
1.10–1.14ºC
$4,290 Vol.
24%
1.15–1.19ºC
$56 Vol.
57%
1.20–1.24ºC
$1,573 Vol.
11%
1.25–1.29ºC
$1,253 Vol.
3%
>1.29ºC
$832 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.El Niño conditions have emerged in the equatorial Pacific as of early June 2026, with the latest NOAA advisory confirming a Niño-3.4 index of +0.7°C and subsurface warmth supporting further intensification through the Northern Hemisphere winter. This development, following a weaker La Niña phase in 2025, serves as the dominant near-term driver elevating trader-implied odds for a June global temperature anomaly in the 1.15–1.19°C range relative to the pre-industrial baseline. Official monitoring from NOAA and Copernicus shows May 2026 already ranking as the second-warmest May on record, consistent with the warming influence of positive sea-surface temperature anomalies across the central and eastern Pacific. Model consensus points to continued El Niño strengthening, though short-term variability in atmospheric response and exact June measurements introduce modest uncertainty around the central bin.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercato aperto: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$8,250Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.El Niño conditions have emerged in the equatorial Pacific as of early June 2026, with the latest NOAA advisory confirming a Niño-3.4 index of +0.7°C and subsurface warmth supporting further intensification through the Northern Hemisphere winter. This development, following a weaker La Niña phase in 2025, serves as the dominant near-term driver elevating trader-implied odds for a June global temperature anomaly in the 1.15–1.19°C range relative to the pre-industrial baseline. Official monitoring from NOAA and Copernicus shows May 2026 already ranking as the second-warmest May on record, consistent with the warming influence of positive sea-surface temperature anomalies across the central and eastern Pacific. Model consensus points to continued El Niño strengthening, though short-term variability in atmospheric response and exact June measurements introduce modest uncertainty around the central bin.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$8,250Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...El Niño conditions have emerged in the equatorial Pacific as of early June 2026, with the latest NOAA advisory confirming a Niño-3.4 index of +0.7°C and subsurface warmth supporting further intensification through the Northern Hemisphere winter. This development, following a weaker La Niña phase in 2025, serves as the dominant near-term driver elevating trader-implied odds for a June global temperature anomaly in the 1.15–1.19°C range relative to the pre-industrial baseline. Official monitoring from NOAA and Copernicus shows May 2026 already ranking as the second-warmest May on record, consistent with the warming influence of positive sea-surface temperature anomalies across the central and eastern Pacific. Model consensus points to continued El Niño strengthening, though short-term variability in atmospheric response and exact June measurements introduce modest uncertainty around the central bin.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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