Emerging El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with an 82% probability of developing by May–July 2026 according to NOAA and IRI forecasts, represent the dominant near-term influence on global mean surface temperatures. This transition from ENSO-neutral conditions, supported by rising sea-surface temperatures in the Niño3.4 region, typically elevates anomalies by several tenths of a degree with a lag of several months, aligning with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around 1.15–1.29°C above the 1850–1900 baseline. Long-term anthropogenic warming, currently near 1.5°C annually in recent observations, provides the underlying trend, while short-term factors such as model spread in El Niño intensity, potential positive Indian Ocean Dipole development, and internal variability introduce the narrow probability margins separating the leading bins. Updated multi-model ensembles and the next NOAA ENSO diagnostic discussion on 11 June will refine these projections ahead of July data.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLuglio 2026 Aumento della temperatura (ºC)
Luglio 2026 Aumento della temperatura (ºC)
1,20–1,24ºC 45%
1,15–1,19ºC 44%
>1,29ºC 44%
<1,10ºC 43%
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 ago 2026
<1,10ºC
43%
1,10–1,14ºC
43%
1,15–1,19ºC
44%
1,20–1,24ºC
45%
1,25–1,29ºC
43%
>1,29ºC
44%
1,20–1,24ºC 45%
1,15–1,19ºC 44%
>1,29ºC 44%
<1,10ºC 43%
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 ago 2026
<1,10ºC
$59 Vol.
43%
1,10–1,14ºC
$49 Vol.
43%
1,15–1,19ºC
$41 Vol.
44%
1,20–1,24ºC
$45 Vol.
45%
1,25–1,29ºC
$62 Vol.
43%
>1,29ºC
$47 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Emerging El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with an 82% probability of developing by May–July 2026 according to NOAA and IRI forecasts, represent the dominant near-term influence on global mean surface temperatures. This transition from ENSO-neutral conditions, supported by rising sea-surface temperatures in the Niño3.4 region, typically elevates anomalies by several tenths of a degree with a lag of several months, aligning with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around 1.15–1.29°C above the 1850–1900 baseline. Long-term anthropogenic warming, currently near 1.5°C annually in recent observations, provides the underlying trend, while short-term factors such as model spread in El Niño intensity, potential positive Indian Ocean Dipole development, and internal variability introduce the narrow probability margins separating the leading bins. Updated multi-model ensembles and the next NOAA ENSO diagnostic discussion on 11 June will refine these projections ahead of July data.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercato aperto: Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$303Data di fine
1 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Emerging El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with an 82% probability of developing by May–July 2026 according to NOAA and IRI forecasts, represent the dominant near-term influence on global mean surface temperatures. This transition from ENSO-neutral conditions, supported by rising sea-surface temperatures in the Niño3.4 region, typically elevates anomalies by several tenths of a degree with a lag of several months, aligning with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around 1.15–1.29°C above the 1850–1900 baseline. Long-term anthropogenic warming, currently near 1.5°C annually in recent observations, provides the underlying trend, while short-term factors such as model spread in El Niño intensity, potential positive Indian Ocean Dipole development, and internal variability introduce the narrow probability margins separating the leading bins. Updated multi-model ensembles and the next NOAA ENSO diagnostic discussion on 11 June will refine these projections ahead of July data.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$303Data di fine
1 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Emerging El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with an 82% probability of developing by May–July 2026 according to NOAA and IRI forecasts, represent the dominant near-term influence on global mean surface temperatures. This transition from ENSO-neutral conditions, supported by rising sea-surface temperatures in the Niño3.4 region, typically elevates anomalies by several tenths of a degree with a lag of several months, aligning with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around 1.15–1.29°C above the 1850–1900 baseline. Long-term anthropogenic warming, currently near 1.5°C annually in recent observations, provides the underlying trend, while short-term factors such as model spread in El Niño intensity, potential positive Indian Ocean Dipole development, and internal variability introduce the narrow probability margins separating the leading bins. Updated multi-model ensembles and the next NOAA ENSO diagnostic discussion on 11 June will refine these projections ahead of July data.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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