Recent National Weather Service point forecasts and ensemble guidance indicate San Francisco overnight lows for October 12 will likely settle in the low-to-mid 50s°F under mostly clear skies and light onshore flow, consistent with climatological averages near 55°F. Clear conditions promote modest radiational cooling overnight, while a persistent marine influence and recent dry pattern limit further drops. Traders appear to assign the highest implied probability (44%) to 62°F or higher, with substantial support across the 46–61°F bins near 33%, reflecting uncertainty in exact minimum timing and microclimate variations across observation sites. The sub-43°F outcome remains a low-probability tail at 2.5%. Updated model runs and NWS briefings ahead of the overnight period represent the next key data points that could shift positioning.