Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance points to a mild overnight period on October 6, 2026, with San Francisco lows most likely in the low 60s °F under clear, sunny conditions and light westerly flow. This reflects a broader early-October warm anomaly, with observed lows already running 5–8 °F above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 55 °F for the date. Marine-layer development or stronger onshore winds could still pull readings into the upper 50s, while continued clear, calm nights would support the higher end of the range. Market-implied odds therefore place the greatest weight on 72 °F or warmer, with meaningful probability also assigned to the 54–69 °F bands; the low probability attached to 53 °F or below aligns with the limited historical precedent for such cold readings this early in the season absent a strong offshore flow event. Updated model runs and the evening forecast discussion on October 5 will provide the final data points before resolution.