Latest ensemble forecasts from regional meteorological models show Shanghai's July 21 minimum temperature most likely settling near 27–28 °C, reflecting a typical summer nocturnal inversion under subtropical high pressure with light southerly flow and high humidity limiting radiative cooling. Trader consensus clusters tightly around these values because current guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global models (ECMWF, GFS) converges on minimal day-to-day variability, while urban heat-island effects and recent above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the East China Sea sustain elevated baseline readings. The modest probabilities assigned to 25 °C or lower hinge on any unexpected northerly surge or increased cloud cover that could enhance cooling, whereas warmer outliers remain possible if the ridge strengthens. Updated model runs and official 48-hour forecasts over the next day will be the key catalysts likely to refine these market-implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa a Shanghai il 21 luglio?
La temperatura più bassa a Shanghai il 21 luglio?
27°C 40%
28°C 35%
26°C 21%
25°C 7%
NUOVO
NUOVO
21 lug 2026
22°C o inferiore
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
7%
26°C
21%
27°C
40%
28°C
35%
29°C
3%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C o superiore
<1%
27°C 40%
28°C 35%
26°C 21%
25°C 7%
NUOVO
NUOVO
21 lug 2026
22°C o inferiore
$1,613 Vol.
1%
23°C
$1,586 Vol.
1%
24°C
$747 Vol.
2%
25°C
$353 Vol.
7%
26°C
$643 Vol.
21%
27°C
$588 Vol.
40%
28°C
$478 Vol.
35%
29°C
$264 Vol.
3%
30°C
$294 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$454 Vol.
<1%
32°C o superiore
$286 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from regional meteorological models show Shanghai's July 21 minimum temperature most likely settling near 27–28 °C, reflecting a typical summer nocturnal inversion under subtropical high pressure with light southerly flow and high humidity limiting radiative cooling. Trader consensus clusters tightly around these values because current guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global models (ECMWF, GFS) converges on minimal day-to-day variability, while urban heat-island effects and recent above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the East China Sea sustain elevated baseline readings. The modest probabilities assigned to 25 °C or lower hinge on any unexpected northerly surge or increased cloud cover that could enhance cooling, whereas warmer outliers remain possible if the ridge strengthens. Updated model runs and official 48-hour forecasts over the next day will be the key catalysts likely to refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jul 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$7,307Data di fine
21 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from regional meteorological models show Shanghai's July 21 minimum temperature most likely settling near 27–28 °C, reflecting a typical summer nocturnal inversion under subtropical high pressure with light southerly flow and high humidity limiting radiative cooling. Trader consensus clusters tightly around these values because current guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global models (ECMWF, GFS) converges on minimal day-to-day variability, while urban heat-island effects and recent above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the East China Sea sustain elevated baseline readings. The modest probabilities assigned to 25 °C or lower hinge on any unexpected northerly surge or increased cloud cover that could enhance cooling, whereas warmer outliers remain possible if the ridge strengthens. Updated model runs and official 48-hour forecasts over the next day will be the key catalysts likely to refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,307Data di fine
21 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from regional meteorological models show Shanghai's July 21 minimum temperature most likely settling near 27–28 °C, reflecting a typical summer nocturnal inversion under subtropical high pressure with light southerly flow and high humidity limiting radiative cooling. Trader consensus clusters tightly around these values because current guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global models (ECMWF, GFS) converges on minimal day-to-day variability, while urban heat-island effects and recent above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the East China Sea sustain elevated baseline readings. The modest probabilities assigned to 25 °C or lower hinge on any unexpected northerly surge or increased cloud cover that could enhance cooling, whereas warmer outliers remain possible if the ridge strengthens. Updated model runs and official 48-hour forecasts over the next day will be the key catalysts likely to refine these market-implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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