Recent forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF indicate Warsaw's minimum temperature on October 2 will likely fall between 9°C and 11°C under clear skies, high pressure near 1034 hPa, and light southeasterly winds that favor radiational cooling overnight. This setup aligns with typical early-October climatology but leaves room for small ensemble spreads in boundary-layer mixing or dewpoint forecasts that could shift the exact low by a few degrees. Trader consensus reflected in the near-even odds between sub-5°C and 15°C+ outcomes highlights this genuine short-range uncertainty, with resolution hinging on official Polish meteorological observations and the precise timing of the daily minimum. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 24 hours will likely tighten the range.