Recent high-pressure dominance and clear skies over central Poland have promoted strong nighttime radiative cooling, positioning Warsaw’s October 1 minimum near 10 °C according to consensus model runs. Forecast soundings indicate dew points around 6–8 °C and light easterly flow limiting mixing, supporting a low of 9–11 °C under the current stable regime. Historical early-October climatology for the city averages 8–12 °C, so the observed setup aligns closely with typical radiative nights rather than anomalous warmth or cold advection. With the day’s high already reached near 20 °C and no incoming fronts expected before midnight, traders have converged on 10 °C as the most probable outcome while assigning lower weight to sub-8 °C scenarios that would require unexpected cloud dissipation or stronger winds.