Incumbent Republican Mark Alford secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary with nearly 78 percent of the vote and faces Democrat Jordan Herrera in the November 3 general election for Missouri's 4th congressional district. The seat's strong Republican tilt, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index around R+21 and consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 92.5 percent. Redistricting adjustments incorporated more of Kansas City but preserved the district's rural and suburban conservative base. Herrera's primary victory occurred in a fragmented field, leaving limited time to close the structural gap. Factors that could narrow the margin include a national partisan shift or unexpected turnout surge, though historical patterns and current race ratings from nonpartisan analysts continue to classify the contest as solidly Republican.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni della Camera MO-04
Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera MO-04
$50,168 Vol.
$50,168 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partito Repubblicano
93%
Partito Democratico
8%
$50,168 Vol.
$50,168 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partito Repubblicano
$32,792 Vol.
93%
Partito Democratico
$17,376 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mark Alford secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary with nearly 78 percent of the vote and faces Democrat Jordan Herrera in the November 3 general election for Missouri's 4th congressional district. The seat's strong Republican tilt, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index around R+21 and consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 92.5 percent. Redistricting adjustments incorporated more of Kansas City but preserved the district's rural and suburban conservative base. Herrera's primary victory occurred in a fragmented field, leaving limited time to close the structural gap. Factors that could narrow the margin include a national partisan shift or unexpected turnout surge, though historical patterns and current race ratings from nonpartisan analysts continue to classify the contest as solidly Republican.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$50,168Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mark Alford secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary with nearly 78 percent of the vote and faces Democrat Jordan Herrera in the November 3 general election for Missouri's 4th congressional district. The seat's strong Republican tilt, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index around R+21 and consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 92.5 percent. Redistricting adjustments incorporated more of Kansas City but preserved the district's rural and suburban conservative base. Herrera's primary victory occurred in a fragmented field, leaving limited time to close the structural gap. Factors that could narrow the margin include a national partisan shift or unexpected turnout surge, though historical patterns and current race ratings from nonpartisan analysts continue to classify the contest as solidly Republican.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$50,168Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mark Alford secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary with nearly 78 percent of the vote and faces Democrat Jordan Herrera in the November 3 general election for Missouri's 4th congressional district. The seat's strong Republican tilt, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index around R+21 and consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 92.5 percent. Redistricting adjustments incorporated more of Kansas City but preserved the district's rural and suburban conservative base. Herrera's primary victory occurred in a fragmented field, leaving limited time to close the structural gap. Factors that could narrow the margin include a national partisan shift or unexpected turnout surge, though historical patterns and current race ratings from nonpartisan analysts continue to classify the contest as solidly Republican.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti