**Jess Wilson leads the market at 63.5% as the clear frontrunner to become Victoria’s next Premier after the November 28, 2026 state election.** As Liberal leader and Opposition Leader since November 2025, she consolidated party support following a leadership spill that ousted Brad Battin, enabling a unified campaign focused on debt reduction, cost-of-living pressures, housing affordability, and law-and-order priorities. Recent DemosAU and Resolve polling has shown the Coalition ahead on a two-party-preferred basis (around 55-45 in August 2026) and Wilson ahead as preferred premier over Labor figures. Labor’s July 2026 leadership transition—from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll after internal pressure and poor polling—has not reversed the Coalition’s momentum, leaving Carroll at 19% amid ongoing voter fatigue after more than a decade in government. Minor-party and other long-shot candidates sit at low single-digit or flat probabilities, reflecting limited paths to the premiership absent a hung parliament or major realignment. Trader positioning tracks these polling trends and the compressed campaign timeline, with Wilson’s position strengthened by consistent leads in key indicators heading into the final months before polling day.