Recent opinion polls for Victoria’s 28 November 2026 state election show a fragmented primary vote, with the Liberal-National Coalition, One Nation, and Labor each clustered in the mid-20s percent range and the Greens near 13 percent. This distribution keeps second-place probabilities tight, as modest shifts in any major party’s support can reorder the ranking. Labor’s position as the most-favored second-place outcome in trader pricing reflects its established base and preference flows, while One Nation’s continued polling strength and recent candidate announcements sustain uncertainty over whether it or the Coalition finishes ahead of Labor. No single recent event has produced decisive separation, leaving the outcome sensitive to late-campaign developments in turnout and preference distribution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLabor 59%
Liberal–National 22%
One Nation 20%
Greens 3.8%
NUOVO
NUOVO
28 nov 2026
Labor
59%
Liberal–National
22%
One Nation
20%
Greens
4%
Labor 59%
Liberal–National 22%
One Nation 20%
Greens 3.8%
NUOVO
NUOVO
28 nov 2026
Labor
$0 Vol.
59%
Liberal–National
$0 Vol.
22%
One Nation
$6 Vol.
20%
Greens
$0 Vol.
4%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent opinion polls for Victoria’s 28 November 2026 state election show a fragmented primary vote, with the Liberal-National Coalition, One Nation, and Labor each clustered in the mid-20s percent range and the Greens near 13 percent. This distribution keeps second-place probabilities tight, as modest shifts in any major party’s support can reorder the ranking. Labor’s position as the most-favored second-place outcome in trader pricing reflects its established base and preference flows, while One Nation’s continued polling strength and recent candidate announcements sustain uncertainty over whether it or the Coalition finishes ahead of Labor. No single recent event has produced decisive separation, leaving the outcome sensitive to late-campaign developments in turnout and preference distribution.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Mercato aperto: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Volume
$6Data di fine
28 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent opinion polls for Victoria’s 28 November 2026 state election show a fragmented primary vote, with the Liberal-National Coalition, One Nation, and Labor each clustered in the mid-20s percent range and the Greens near 13 percent. This distribution keeps second-place probabilities tight, as modest shifts in any major party’s support can reorder the ranking. Labor’s position as the most-favored second-place outcome in trader pricing reflects its established base and preference flows, while One Nation’s continued polling strength and recent candidate announcements sustain uncertainty over whether it or the Coalition finishes ahead of Labor. No single recent event has produced decisive separation, leaving the outcome sensitive to late-campaign developments in turnout and preference distribution.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volume
$6Data di fine
28 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent opinion polls for Victoria’s 28 November 2026 state election show a fragmented primary vote, with the Liberal-National Coalition, One Nation, and Labor each clustered in the mid-20s percent range and the Greens near 13 percent. This distribution keeps second-place probabilities tight, as modest shifts in any major party’s support can reorder the ranking. Labor’s position as the most-favored second-place outcome in trader pricing reflects its established base and preference flows, while One Nation’s continued polling strength and recent candidate announcements sustain uncertainty over whether it or the Coalition finishes ahead of Labor. No single recent event has produced decisive separation, leaving the outcome sensitive to late-campaign developments in turnout and preference distribution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?
63%
Will One Nation win the third-most seats in the next Victorian state election?
73%
Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
53%
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