Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at Brooklyn’s Metropolitan Detention Center since his capture by American forces during strikes in Caracas on January 3, 2026. He and his wife face longstanding narcotics trafficking, weapons, and narcoterrorism charges in the Southern District of New York, where both entered not-guilty pleas and were placed under special administrative measures with no bail granted. Proceedings have been adjourned into spring 2026 amid challenges to the extraterritorial arrest that could reach the Supreme Court. Venezuela’s interim government has released hundreds of political prisoners and some American detainees as a diplomatic gesture, while continuing to demand Maduro’s immediate return, yet U.S. authorities have shown no indication of releasing him before trial or plea resolution. Traders are pricing the low probability of release by year-end around legal timelines, potential plea talks, and absence of any health or political developments that would alter custody status.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$2,631,348 Vol.
31 gen 2026
31 dicembre
14%
$2,631,348 Vol.
31 dicembre
$235,899 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at Brooklyn’s Metropolitan Detention Center since his capture by American forces during strikes in Caracas on January 3, 2026. He and his wife face longstanding narcotics trafficking, weapons, and narcoterrorism charges in the Southern District of New York, where both entered not-guilty pleas and were placed under special administrative measures with no bail granted. Proceedings have been adjourned into spring 2026 amid challenges to the extraterritorial arrest that could reach the Supreme Court. Venezuela’s interim government has released hundreds of political prisoners and some American detainees as a diplomatic gesture, while continuing to demand Maduro’s immediate return, yet U.S. authorities have shown no indication of releasing him before trial or plea resolution. Traders are pricing the low probability of release by year-end around legal timelines, potential plea talks, and absence of any health or political developments that would alter custody status.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volume
$2,631,348Data di fine
31 gen 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at Brooklyn’s Metropolitan Detention Center since his capture by American forces during strikes in Caracas on January 3, 2026. He and his wife face longstanding narcotics trafficking, weapons, and narcoterrorism charges in the Southern District of New York, where both entered not-guilty pleas and were placed under special administrative measures with no bail granted. Proceedings have been adjourned into spring 2026 amid challenges to the extraterritorial arrest that could reach the Supreme Court. Venezuela’s interim government has released hundreds of political prisoners and some American detainees as a diplomatic gesture, while continuing to demand Maduro’s immediate return, yet U.S. authorities have shown no indication of releasing him before trial or plea resolution. Traders are pricing the low probability of release by year-end around legal timelines, potential plea talks, and absence of any health or political developments that would alter custody status.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,631,348Data di fine
31 gen 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at Brooklyn’s Metropolitan Detention Center since his capture by American forces during strikes in Caracas on January 3, 2026. He and his wife face longstanding narcotics trafficking, weapons, and narcoterrorism charges in the Southern District of New York, where both entered not-guilty pleas and were placed under special administrative measures with no bail granted. Proceedings have been adjourned into spring 2026 amid challenges to the extraterritorial arrest that could reach the Supreme Court. Venezuela’s interim government has released hundreds of political prisoners and some American detainees as a diplomatic gesture, while continuing to demand Maduro’s immediate return, yet U.S. authorities have shown no indication of releasing him before trial or plea resolution. Traders are pricing the low probability of release by year-end around legal timelines, potential plea talks, and absence of any health or political developments that would alter custody status.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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