Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody in New York since U.S. forces captured him and his wife during a military operation in Caracas on January 3, 2026. He faces charges including drug trafficking and narco-terrorism, with proceedings continuing after his not-guilty plea. Venezuela's interim administration and foreign minister have repeatedly demanded his immediate release, citing sovereignty concerns, while diplomatic channels between the U.S. and Caracas remain active. Key variables include the pace of the Manhattan federal court case, any potential plea negotiations, and broader bilateral talks on sanctions or prisoner exchanges. No firm timeline for resolution has been announced, leaving outcomes dependent on judicial developments and shifting political pressures through mid-2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$2,631,311 Vol.
31 gen 2026
31 dicembre
14%
$2,631,311 Vol.
31 dicembre
$235,862 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody in New York since U.S. forces captured him and his wife during a military operation in Caracas on January 3, 2026. He faces charges including drug trafficking and narco-terrorism, with proceedings continuing after his not-guilty plea. Venezuela's interim administration and foreign minister have repeatedly demanded his immediate release, citing sovereignty concerns, while diplomatic channels between the U.S. and Caracas remain active. Key variables include the pace of the Manhattan federal court case, any potential plea negotiations, and broader bilateral talks on sanctions or prisoner exchanges. No firm timeline for resolution has been announced, leaving outcomes dependent on judicial developments and shifting political pressures through mid-2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volume
$2,631,311Data di fine
31 gen 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody in New York since U.S. forces captured him and his wife during a military operation in Caracas on January 3, 2026. He faces charges including drug trafficking and narco-terrorism, with proceedings continuing after his not-guilty plea. Venezuela's interim administration and foreign minister have repeatedly demanded his immediate release, citing sovereignty concerns, while diplomatic channels between the U.S. and Caracas remain active. Key variables include the pace of the Manhattan federal court case, any potential plea negotiations, and broader bilateral talks on sanctions or prisoner exchanges. No firm timeline for resolution has been announced, leaving outcomes dependent on judicial developments and shifting political pressures through mid-2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,631,311Data di fine
31 gen 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody in New York since U.S. forces captured him and his wife during a military operation in Caracas on January 3, 2026. He faces charges including drug trafficking and narco-terrorism, with proceedings continuing after his not-guilty plea. Venezuela's interim administration and foreign minister have repeatedly demanded his immediate release, citing sovereignty concerns, while diplomatic channels between the U.S. and Caracas remain active. Key variables include the pace of the Manhattan federal court case, any potential plea negotiations, and broader bilateral talks on sanctions or prisoner exchanges. No firm timeline for resolution has been announced, leaving outcomes dependent on judicial developments and shifting political pressures through mid-2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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