Trader consensus strongly favors "No" on OpenAI announcing artificial general intelligence before 2027 at 91% implied probability, driven primarily by the lack of any verified milestone or system meeting standard AGI criteria such as highly autonomous performance across most economically valuable work. Recent large language model releases, including GPT-5.3-Codex and advances in agentic reasoning, demonstrate incremental gains in coding and multi-step tasks but fall short of transformative benchmarks, aligning with cautious executive statements and extended timelines from 2025–2026 updates. Contractual verification requirements with partners like Microsoft further discourage premature claims. A sudden breakthrough in recursive self-improvement or undisclosed scaling could still shift outcomes before year-end, though current evidence supports the market's high-conviction stance.