Recent advancements in large language model reasoning have kept the race for third place in Text Arena Math tight through mid-August 2026. Alibaba leads with 27% implied probability thanks to continued Qwen-series refinements in symbolic math and chain-of-thought performance, while Google sits at 21.5% on the strength of its Gemini updates and internal benchmark gains. OpenAI, Anthropic, and several Chinese labs cluster between 10-15.5%, reflecting comparable progress in training scale, data curation, and specialized fine-tuning. With no single model demonstrating decisive separation on live arenas, traders are pricing in uncertainty around October releases, regulatory shifts in compute access, and the possibility of surprise gains from labs like DeepSeek or Moonshot.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTerzo miglior Text Arena Math AI Lab a fine ottobre?
Terzo miglior Text Arena Math AI Lab a fine ottobre?
Alibaba 36%
Google 23%
Anthropic 15%
Z.ai 14%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 ott 2026
Alibaba
36%
20%
Anthropic
15%
Z.ai
14%
OpenAI
13%
DeepSeek
12%
Baidu
10%
Moonshot
10%
Meta
9%
Meituan
6%
Mistral
6%
Microsoft
6%
Nvidia
6%
MiniMax
6%
Bytedance
6%
StepFun
4%
Xiaomi
4%
Tencent
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Amazon
1%
Alibaba 36%
Google 23%
Anthropic 15%
Z.ai 14%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 ott 2026
Alibaba
$79 Vol.
36%
$45 Vol.
20%
Anthropic
$69 Vol.
15%
Z.ai
$69 Vol.
14%
OpenAI
$69 Vol.
13%
DeepSeek
$49 Vol.
12%
Baidu
$79 Vol.
10%
Moonshot
$79 Vol.
10%
Meta
$69 Vol.
9%
Meituan
$149 Vol.
6%
Mistral
$173 Vol.
6%
Microsoft
$92 Vol.
6%
Nvidia
$116 Vol.
6%
MiniMax
$175 Vol.
6%
Bytedance
$130 Vol.
6%
StepFun
$60 Vol.
4%
Xiaomi
$69 Vol.
4%
Tencent
$54 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$64 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$79 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent advancements in large language model reasoning have kept the race for third place in Text Arena Math tight through mid-August 2026. Alibaba leads with 27% implied probability thanks to continued Qwen-series refinements in symbolic math and chain-of-thought performance, while Google sits at 21.5% on the strength of its Gemini updates and internal benchmark gains. OpenAI, Anthropic, and several Chinese labs cluster between 10-15.5%, reflecting comparable progress in training scale, data curation, and specialized fine-tuning. With no single model demonstrating decisive separation on live arenas, traders are pricing in uncertainty around October releases, regulatory shifts in compute access, and the possibility of surprise gains from labs like DeepSeek or Moonshot.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercato aperto: Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ET
Volume
$1,769Data di fine
31 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent advancements in large language model reasoning have kept the race for third place in Text Arena Math tight through mid-August 2026. Alibaba leads with 27% implied probability thanks to continued Qwen-series refinements in symbolic math and chain-of-thought performance, while Google sits at 21.5% on the strength of its Gemini updates and internal benchmark gains. OpenAI, Anthropic, and several Chinese labs cluster between 10-15.5%, reflecting comparable progress in training scale, data curation, and specialized fine-tuning. With no single model demonstrating decisive separation on live arenas, traders are pricing in uncertainty around October releases, regulatory shifts in compute access, and the possibility of surprise gains from labs like DeepSeek or Moonshot.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$1,769Data di fine
31 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent advancements in large language model reasoning have kept the race for third place in Text Arena Math tight through mid-August 2026. Alibaba leads with 27% implied probability thanks to continued Qwen-series refinements in symbolic math and chain-of-thought performance, while Google sits at 21.5% on the strength of its Gemini updates and internal benchmark gains. OpenAI, Anthropic, and several Chinese labs cluster between 10-15.5%, reflecting comparable progress in training scale, data curation, and specialized fine-tuning. With no single model demonstrating decisive separation on live arenas, traders are pricing in uncertainty around October releases, regulatory shifts in compute access, and the possibility of surprise gains from labs like DeepSeek or Moonshot.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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