OpenAI’s $852 billion post-money valuation from its March 2026 $122 billion funding round, paired with $24–25 billion annualized revenue run rate, underpins trader consensus for a closing market cap above $1.25 trillion. Enterprise revenue now exceeds 40% of total and continues scaling, even as overall growth has flattened near $2 billion monthly. The confidential June 2026 S-1 filing and pivot toward a 2027 listing—rather than late 2026—introduce modest timing uncertainty yet leave the probability of no IPO by end-2027 below 10%. These factors, combined with OpenAI’s ambition for a $1 trillion-plus debut and strong AI-sector multiples, drive the 37.6% implied probability on the 1.5T+ outcome while embedding realistic scenarios for lower ranges if losses widen or macro conditions tighten.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato1,5T+ 37.6%
1,25T–1,5T 25%
1T–1,25T 20.3%
Nessuna quotazione in borsa entro il 31 dicembre 2027 10%
$90,303 Vol.
$90,303 Vol.
31 dic 2027
<500 miliardi
1%
500–750 miliardi
3%
750B–1T
8%
1T–1,25T
20%
1,25T–1,5T
25%
1,5T+
38%
Nessuna quotazione in borsa entro il 31 dicembre 2027
10%
1,5T+ 37.6%
1,25T–1,5T 25%
1T–1,25T 20.3%
Nessuna quotazione in borsa entro il 31 dicembre 2027 10%
$90,303 Vol.
$90,303 Vol.
31 dic 2027
<500 miliardi
$6,284 Vol.
1%
500–750 miliardi
$8,357 Vol.
3%
750B–1T
$9,333 Vol.
8%
1T–1,25T
$14,102 Vol.
20%
1,25T–1,5T
$8,690 Vol.
25%
1,5T+
$24,054 Vol.
38%
Nessuna quotazione in borsa entro il 31 dicembre 2027
$19,483 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s $852 billion post-money valuation from its March 2026 $122 billion funding round, paired with $24–25 billion annualized revenue run rate, underpins trader consensus for a closing market cap above $1.25 trillion. Enterprise revenue now exceeds 40% of total and continues scaling, even as overall growth has flattened near $2 billion monthly. The confidential June 2026 S-1 filing and pivot toward a 2027 listing—rather than late 2026—introduce modest timing uncertainty yet leave the probability of no IPO by end-2027 below 10%. These factors, combined with OpenAI’s ambition for a $1 trillion-plus debut and strong AI-sector multiples, drive the 37.6% implied probability on the 1.5T+ outcome while embedding realistic scenarios for lower ranges if losses widen or macro conditions tighten.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercato aperto: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$90,303Data di fine
31 dic 2027Mercato aperto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s $852 billion post-money valuation from its March 2026 $122 billion funding round, paired with $24–25 billion annualized revenue run rate, underpins trader consensus for a closing market cap above $1.25 trillion. Enterprise revenue now exceeds 40% of total and continues scaling, even as overall growth has flattened near $2 billion monthly. The confidential June 2026 S-1 filing and pivot toward a 2027 listing—rather than late 2026—introduce modest timing uncertainty yet leave the probability of no IPO by end-2027 below 10%. These factors, combined with OpenAI’s ambition for a $1 trillion-plus debut and strong AI-sector multiples, drive the 37.6% implied probability on the 1.5T+ outcome while embedding realistic scenarios for lower ranges if losses widen or macro conditions tighten.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$90,303Data di fine
31 dic 2027Mercato aperto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI’s $852 billion post-money valuation from its March 2026 $122 billion funding round, paired with $24–25 billion annualized revenue run rate, underpins trader consensus for a closing market cap above $1.25 trillion. Enterprise revenue now exceeds 40% of total and continues scaling, even as overall growth has flattened near $2 billion monthly. The confidential June 2026 S-1 filing and pivot toward a 2027 listing—rather than late 2026—introduce modest timing uncertainty yet leave the probability of no IPO by end-2027 below 10%. These factors, combined with OpenAI’s ambition for a $1 trillion-plus debut and strong AI-sector multiples, drive the 37.6% implied probability on the 1.5T+ outcome while embedding realistic scenarios for lower ranges if losses widen or macro conditions tighten.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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