OpenAI’s March 2026 $122 billion funding round set an $852 billion post-money valuation, positioning the company for a potential Q4 2026 IPO that could clear $1 trillion amid sustained AI demand and revenue that reached $13 billion in 2025. Trader consensus assigning 43.5% probability to a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion reflects optimism around continued compute scale and user growth, while the 19.5% likelihood of no IPO by December 2027 incorporates recent reports of missed internal targets and CFO Sarah Friar’s push to delay amid $600 billion in five-year compute commitments and projected $14 billion losses this year. Key near-term catalysts include any S-1 filing and third-quarter financial disclosures that could clarify the revenue trajectory versus these execution risks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNessuna quotazione in borsa entro il 31 dicembre 2027 20%
750B–1T 10%
<500 miliardi 9.6%
1T–1,25T 9%
$16,865 Vol.
$16,865 Vol.
31 dic 2027
<500 miliardi
10%
500–750 miliardi
3%
750B–1T
27%
1T–1,25T
27%
1,25T–1,5T
7%
1,5T+
43%
Nessuna quotazione in borsa entro il 31 dicembre 2027
20%
Nessuna quotazione in borsa entro il 31 dicembre 2027 20%
750B–1T 10%
<500 miliardi 9.6%
1T–1,25T 9%
$16,865 Vol.
$16,865 Vol.
31 dic 2027
<500 miliardi
$209 Vol.
10%
500–750 miliardi
$341 Vol.
3%
750B–1T
$475 Vol.
27%
1T–1,25T
$3,251 Vol.
27%
1,25T–1,5T
$532 Vol.
7%
1,5T+
$486 Vol.
43%
Nessuna quotazione in borsa entro il 31 dicembre 2027
$11,570 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s March 2026 $122 billion funding round set an $852 billion post-money valuation, positioning the company for a potential Q4 2026 IPO that could clear $1 trillion amid sustained AI demand and revenue that reached $13 billion in 2025. Trader consensus assigning 43.5% probability to a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion reflects optimism around continued compute scale and user growth, while the 19.5% likelihood of no IPO by December 2027 incorporates recent reports of missed internal targets and CFO Sarah Friar’s push to delay amid $600 billion in five-year compute commitments and projected $14 billion losses this year. Key near-term catalysts include any S-1 filing and third-quarter financial disclosures that could clarify the revenue trajectory versus these execution risks.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercato aperto: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$16,865Data di fine
31 dic 2027Mercato aperto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s March 2026 $122 billion funding round set an $852 billion post-money valuation, positioning the company for a potential Q4 2026 IPO that could clear $1 trillion amid sustained AI demand and revenue that reached $13 billion in 2025. Trader consensus assigning 43.5% probability to a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion reflects optimism around continued compute scale and user growth, while the 19.5% likelihood of no IPO by December 2027 incorporates recent reports of missed internal targets and CFO Sarah Friar’s push to delay amid $600 billion in five-year compute commitments and projected $14 billion losses this year. Key near-term catalysts include any S-1 filing and third-quarter financial disclosures that could clarify the revenue trajectory versus these execution risks.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$16,865Data di fine
31 dic 2027Mercato aperto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI’s March 2026 $122 billion funding round set an $852 billion post-money valuation, positioning the company for a potential Q4 2026 IPO that could clear $1 trillion amid sustained AI demand and revenue that reached $13 billion in 2025. Trader consensus assigning 43.5% probability to a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion reflects optimism around continued compute scale and user growth, while the 19.5% likelihood of no IPO by December 2027 incorporates recent reports of missed internal targets and CFO Sarah Friar’s push to delay amid $600 billion in five-year compute commitments and projected $14 billion losses this year. Key near-term catalysts include any S-1 filing and third-quarter financial disclosures that could clarify the revenue trajectory versus these execution risks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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