Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, at 72.5% implied probability, driven by recent reports of internal tensions between CEO Sam Altman and CFO Sarah Friar, who has flagged a 2026 timeline as overly aggressive amid massive compute spending commitments exceeding $600 billion over five years and missed revenue and user growth targets. OpenAI's blockbuster $122 billion funding round in late March closed at an $852 billion post-money valuation, providing employee liquidity via a $6.6 billion share sale, yet much of the capital remains conditional on public listing progress. Ongoing restructuring from nonprofit roots, Elon Musk's lawsuit nearing closure, and softening revenue momentum versus escalating AI infrastructure costs temper expectations for trillion-dollar outcomes like 1.5T+ (8.9%), with traders eyeing a potential S-1 filing or delay signals in Q3 as key catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCapitalizzazione di mercato di chiusura IPO OpenAI
Capitalizzazione di mercato di chiusura IPO OpenAI
Nessuna IPO entro il 31 dicembre 2026 73%
1,5T+ 8.9%
1,25 T–1,5 T 3.5%
500–750 miliardi 3.4%
$1,637,996 Vol.
$1,637,996 Vol.
30 giu 2026
<500Mld
1%
500–750 miliardi
3%
750 miliardi–1 trilione
2%
1T–1,25T
3%
1,25 T–1,5 T
3%
1,5T+
9%
Nessuna IPO entro il 31 dicembre 2026
73%
Nessuna IPO entro il 31 dicembre 2026 73%
1,5T+ 8.9%
1,25 T–1,5 T 3.5%
500–750 miliardi 3.4%
$1,637,996 Vol.
$1,637,996 Vol.
30 giu 2026
<500Mld
$266,158 Vol.
1%
500–750 miliardi
$146,331 Vol.
3%
750 miliardi–1 trilione
$141,040 Vol.
2%
1T–1,25T
$182,384 Vol.
3%
1,25 T–1,5 T
$496,174 Vol.
3%
1,5T+
$100,916 Vol.
9%
Nessuna IPO entro il 31 dicembre 2026
$304,993 Vol.
73%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, at 72.5% implied probability, driven by recent reports of internal tensions between CEO Sam Altman and CFO Sarah Friar, who has flagged a 2026 timeline as overly aggressive amid massive compute spending commitments exceeding $600 billion over five years and missed revenue and user growth targets. OpenAI's blockbuster $122 billion funding round in late March closed at an $852 billion post-money valuation, providing employee liquidity via a $6.6 billion share sale, yet much of the capital remains conditional on public listing progress. Ongoing restructuring from nonprofit roots, Elon Musk's lawsuit nearing closure, and softening revenue momentum versus escalating AI infrastructure costs temper expectations for trillion-dollar outcomes like 1.5T+ (8.9%), with traders eyeing a potential S-1 filing or delay signals in Q3 as key catalysts.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercato aperto: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,637,996Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, at 72.5% implied probability, driven by recent reports of internal tensions between CEO Sam Altman and CFO Sarah Friar, who has flagged a 2026 timeline as overly aggressive amid massive compute spending commitments exceeding $600 billion over five years and missed revenue and user growth targets. OpenAI's blockbuster $122 billion funding round in late March closed at an $852 billion post-money valuation, providing employee liquidity via a $6.6 billion share sale, yet much of the capital remains conditional on public listing progress. Ongoing restructuring from nonprofit roots, Elon Musk's lawsuit nearing closure, and softening revenue momentum versus escalating AI infrastructure costs temper expectations for trillion-dollar outcomes like 1.5T+ (8.9%), with traders eyeing a potential S-1 filing or delay signals in Q3 as key catalysts.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$1,637,996Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, at 72.5% implied probability, driven by recent reports of internal tensions between CEO Sam Altman and CFO Sarah Friar, who has flagged a 2026 timeline as overly aggressive amid massive compute spending commitments exceeding $600 billion over five years and missed revenue and user growth targets. OpenAI's blockbuster $122 billion funding round in late March closed at an $852 billion post-money valuation, providing employee liquidity via a $6.6 billion share sale, yet much of the capital remains conditional on public listing progress. Ongoing restructuring from nonprofit roots, Elon Musk's lawsuit nearing closure, and softening revenue momentum versus escalating AI infrastructure costs temper expectations for trillion-dollar outcomes like 1.5T+ (8.9%), with traders eyeing a potential S-1 filing or delay signals in Q3 as key catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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