Morgan Stanley’s dominant 87% implied probability stems from its repeated designation as lead-left underwriter for Anthropic’s planned mid-November IPO, a role reinforced by its leadership of the company’s $15 billion pre-IPO revolving credit facility and direct investor discussions on valuation. Goldman Sachs holds the next-highest odds at 10.9% due to its expected stabilization-agent mandate and parallel involvement in the credit syndicate. Recent developments, including the June confidential S-1 filing and potential public release as soon as late October 2026, have solidified these assignments among the core banks while leaving secondary roles for JPMorgan and others. Trader sentiment prices in the established mandates and limited scope for late changes ahead of roadshow activity.