OpenAI's closely matched Polymarket odds, with the $1.25–1.5 trillion bracket leading at 20.5% implied probability, reflect persistent uncertainty over IPO timing and achievable valuation amid a $852 billion March 2026 private round and CEO Sam Altman's reported insistence on a $1 trillion floor. Recent developments include the June confidential S-1 filing, followed by signals from CFO Sarah Friar favoring a 2027 debut over a 2026 window, driven by revenue run rates near $40 billion annualized against projected operating losses exceeding $14 billion and heavy compute spending. Trader consensus prices in execution risk from competitive pressures, including Anthropic's higher private mark, alongside broader AI sector multiples and potential catalysts such as earnings inflection or regulatory clarity that could shift the distribution across the $1–2 trillion range.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$1.25T–$1.5T 20.5%
$1.75T–$2.0T 20%
$1.5T–$1.75T 18.6%
$2.5T+ 14.6%
$124,343 Vol.
$124,343 Vol.
30 giu 2027
<$1T
7%
$1.0T–$1.25T
10%
$1.25T–$1.5T
21%
$1.5T–$1.75T
19%
$1.75T–$2.0T
20%
$2.0T–$2.25T
4%
$2.25T–$2.5T
5%
$2.5T+
15%
$1.25T–$1.5T 20.5%
$1.75T–$2.0T 20%
$1.5T–$1.75T 18.6%
$2.5T+ 14.6%
$124,343 Vol.
$124,343 Vol.
30 giu 2027
<$1T
$15,466 Vol.
7%
$1.0T–$1.25T
$14,056 Vol.
10%
$1.25T–$1.5T
$6,920 Vol.
21%
$1.5T–$1.75T
$7,286 Vol.
19%
$1.75T–$2.0T
$13,585 Vol.
20%
$2.0T–$2.25T
$2,564 Vol.
4%
$2.25T–$2.5T
$6,826 Vol.
5%
$2.5T+
$57,641 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI's closely matched Polymarket odds, with the $1.25–1.5 trillion bracket leading at 20.5% implied probability, reflect persistent uncertainty over IPO timing and achievable valuation amid a $852 billion March 2026 private round and CEO Sam Altman's reported insistence on a $1 trillion floor. Recent developments include the June confidential S-1 filing, followed by signals from CFO Sarah Friar favoring a 2027 debut over a 2026 window, driven by revenue run rates near $40 billion annualized against projected operating losses exceeding $14 billion and heavy compute spending. Trader consensus prices in execution risk from competitive pressures, including Anthropic's higher private mark, alongside broader AI sector multiples and potential catalysts such as earnings inflection or regulatory clarity that could shift the distribution across the $1–2 trillion range.
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: May 21, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
Volume
$124,343Data di fine
1 lug 2027Mercato aperto
May 21, 2026, 1:27 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI's closely matched Polymarket odds, with the $1.25–1.5 trillion bracket leading at 20.5% implied probability, reflect persistent uncertainty over IPO timing and achievable valuation amid a $852 billion March 2026 private round and CEO Sam Altman's reported insistence on a $1 trillion floor. Recent developments include the June confidential S-1 filing, followed by signals from CFO Sarah Friar favoring a 2027 debut over a 2026 window, driven by revenue run rates near $40 billion annualized against projected operating losses exceeding $14 billion and heavy compute spending. Trader consensus prices in execution risk from competitive pressures, including Anthropic's higher private mark, alongside broader AI sector multiples and potential catalysts such as earnings inflection or regulatory clarity that could shift the distribution across the $1–2 trillion range.
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$124,343Data di fine
1 lug 2027Mercato aperto
May 21, 2026, 1:27 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI's closely matched Polymarket odds, with the $1.25–1.5 trillion bracket leading at 20.5% implied probability, reflect persistent uncertainty over IPO timing and achievable valuation amid a $852 billion March 2026 private round and CEO Sam Altman's reported insistence on a $1 trillion floor. Recent developments include the June confidential S-1 filing, followed by signals from CFO Sarah Friar favoring a 2027 debut over a 2026 window, driven by revenue run rates near $40 billion annualized against projected operating losses exceeding $14 billion and heavy compute spending. Trader consensus prices in execution risk from competitive pressures, including Anthropic's higher private mark, alongside broader AI sector multiples and potential catalysts such as earnings inflection or regulatory clarity that could shift the distribution across the $1–2 trillion range.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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