Recent tender offers valuing Stripe at $159 billion in February 2026, alongside secondary-market indications near $177–196 billion and robust revenue growth exceeding 40% in the first half of 2026, anchor trader expectations for an eventual IPO. Founders have repeatedly signaled preference for remaining private to preserve flexibility amid AI-driven shifts in payments and agentic commerce, with no S-1 filing yet submitted and IPO odds by end-2027 priced at just 17.5%. This backdrop produces tightly clustered probabilities across sub-$150 billion through $500 billion-plus brackets, each near 35–40.5%, reflecting uncertainty over timing, equity market conditions at listing, and potential revenue multiples that could push closing market cap higher or keep it closer to current private levels. Key swing factors include any regulatory filing or sustained free-cash-flow momentum into 2027.