Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Anthropic going public first at 68.5% implied probability, driven by the AI lab's accelerated IPO preparations amid OpenAI's internal hurdles. Anthropic hired elite IPO law firm Wilson Sonsini and is in banker discussions for a potential Q4 2026 listing at a $300-380 billion valuation, bolstered by a projected $26 billion annual revenue run-rate from Claude AI enterprise adoption and backing from Amazon and Google. In contrast, OpenAI faces CFO Sarah Friar's skepticism over a late-2026 IPO due to missed revenue targets, $600 billion compute commitments, and leadership tensions, potentially pushing its timeline into 2027. Key catalysts include S-1 filings or further funding disclosures in the coming months.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAnthropic
$54,164 Vol.
$54,164 Vol.
31 dic 2027
Anthropic
$54,164 Vol.
$54,164 Vol.
31 dic 2027
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Anthropic going public first at 68.5% implied probability, driven by the AI lab's accelerated IPO preparations amid OpenAI's internal hurdles. Anthropic hired elite IPO law firm Wilson Sonsini and is in banker discussions for a potential Q4 2026 listing at a $300-380 billion valuation, bolstered by a projected $26 billion annual revenue run-rate from Claude AI enterprise adoption and backing from Amazon and Google. In contrast, OpenAI faces CFO Sarah Friar's skepticism over a late-2026 IPO due to missed revenue targets, $600 billion compute commitments, and leadership tensions, potentially pushing its timeline into 2027. Key catalysts include S-1 filings or further funding disclosures in the coming months.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$54,164Data di fine
31 dic 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Anthropic going public first at 68.5% implied probability, driven by the AI lab's accelerated IPO preparations amid OpenAI's internal hurdles. Anthropic hired elite IPO law firm Wilson Sonsini and is in banker discussions for a potential Q4 2026 listing at a $300-380 billion valuation, bolstered by a projected $26 billion annual revenue run-rate from Claude AI enterprise adoption and backing from Amazon and Google. In contrast, OpenAI faces CFO Sarah Friar's skepticism over a late-2026 IPO due to missed revenue targets, $600 billion compute commitments, and leadership tensions, potentially pushing its timeline into 2027. Key catalysts include S-1 filings or further funding disclosures in the coming months.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$54,164Data di fine
31 dic 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Anthropic going public first at 68.5% implied probability, driven by the AI lab's accelerated IPO preparations amid OpenAI's internal hurdles. Anthropic hired elite IPO law firm Wilson Sonsini and is in banker discussions for a potential Q4 2026 listing at a $300-380 billion valuation, bolstered by a projected $26 billion annual revenue run-rate from Claude AI enterprise adoption and backing from Amazon and Google. In contrast, OpenAI faces CFO Sarah Friar's skepticism over a late-2026 IPO due to missed revenue targets, $600 billion compute commitments, and leadership tensions, potentially pushing its timeline into 2027. Key catalysts include S-1 filings or further funding disclosures in the coming months.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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