Anthropic’s active IPO preparations, including its June confidential SEC filing and late-September public prospectus targeting a November 2026 Nasdaq debut at up to $2 trillion, drive the 95.7% implied probability it will list ahead of OpenAI. Trader consensus reflects Anthropic’s concrete timeline and revenue momentum, contrasted with OpenAI’s explicit delay to 2027. CEO Sam Altman cited AI safety and alignment priorities as reasons to avoid a 2026 public listing, opting instead for bridge private funding at around $1.4 trillion. While Anthropic’s schedule could slip due to regulatory reviews, market volatility, or last-minute adjustments before the U.S. midterms, OpenAI’s stated commitment makes a reversal unlikely in the near term.