OpenAI's August 7 pause on internal Astra development, triggered by preliminary evaluations showing critical-level capabilities in agentic coding and autonomous cybersecurity exploits, has become the dominant driver of market-implied odds. The model, publicly referenced August 1 for solving ten longstanding math problems, now faces extended robustness testing under OpenAI's preparedness framework plus coordination with emerging White House voluntary guidelines. Traders see these AI safety requirements, combined with the absence of any announced timeline or external benchmarks, as the key factors tilting consensus toward delayed release beyond early fall windows and elevating the "not by November 1" outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIn quale settimana OpenAI rilascerà Astra?
In quale settimana OpenAI rilascerà Astra?
Non rilasciato entro il 1° novembre 39%
Prima del 31 agosto 38%
7–13 settembre 38%
31 agosto–6 settembre 38%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 ago 2026
Prima del 31 agosto
38%
31 agosto–6 settembre
38%
7–13 settembre
38%
14–20 settembre
38%
21–27 settembre
38%
28 settembre–4 ottobre
38%
5–11 ottobre
38%
12–18 ottobre
38%
19–25 ottobre
38%
26 ottobre–1 novembre
38%
Non rilasciato entro il 1° novembre
39%
Non rilasciato entro il 1° novembre 39%
Prima del 31 agosto 38%
7–13 settembre 38%
31 agosto–6 settembre 38%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 ago 2026
Prima del 31 agosto
$0 Vol.
38%
31 agosto–6 settembre
$0 Vol.
38%
7–13 settembre
$0 Vol.
38%
14–20 settembre
$0 Vol.
38%
21–27 settembre
$0 Vol.
38%
28 settembre–4 ottobre
$0 Vol.
38%
5–11 ottobre
$0 Vol.
38%
12–18 ottobre
$0 Vol.
38%
19–25 ottobre
$0 Vol.
38%
26 ottobre–1 novembre
$0 Vol.
38%
Non rilasciato entro il 1° novembre
$0 Vol.
39%
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI's August 7 pause on internal Astra development, triggered by preliminary evaluations showing critical-level capabilities in agentic coding and autonomous cybersecurity exploits, has become the dominant driver of market-implied odds. The model, publicly referenced August 1 for solving ten longstanding math problems, now faces extended robustness testing under OpenAI's preparedness framework plus coordination with emerging White House voluntary guidelines. Traders see these AI safety requirements, combined with the absence of any announced timeline or external benchmarks, as the key factors tilting consensus toward delayed release beyond early fall windows and elevating the "not by November 1" outcome.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Aug 14, 2026, 4:43 PM ET
Volume
$0Data di fine
1 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 14, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI's August 7 pause on internal Astra development, triggered by preliminary evaluations showing critical-level capabilities in agentic coding and autonomous cybersecurity exploits, has become the dominant driver of market-implied odds. The model, publicly referenced August 1 for solving ten longstanding math problems, now faces extended robustness testing under OpenAI's preparedness framework plus coordination with emerging White House voluntary guidelines. Traders see these AI safety requirements, combined with the absence of any announced timeline or external benchmarks, as the key factors tilting consensus toward delayed release beyond early fall windows and elevating the "not by November 1" outcome.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$0Data di fine
1 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 14, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI's August 7 pause on internal Astra development, triggered by preliminary evaluations showing critical-level capabilities in agentic coding and autonomous cybersecurity exploits, has become the dominant driver of market-implied odds. The model, publicly referenced August 1 for solving ten longstanding math problems, now faces extended robustness testing under OpenAI's preparedness framework plus coordination with emerging White House voluntary guidelines. Traders see these AI safety requirements, combined with the absence of any announced timeline or external benchmarks, as the key factors tilting consensus toward delayed release beyond early fall windows and elevating the "not by November 1" outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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