Recent severe heat across France, including Paris highs near 41°C and official red alerts in late June, combined with Météo-France seasonal outlooks favoring +1–3°C July anomalies, underpins the near-even odds. Model consensus from ECMWF and CFS points to elevated risk of additional heatwave episodes, particularly mid-to-late July, yet exact timing, duration, and peak intensity remain uncertain amid potential steering-pattern shifts or Atlantic cooling. Traders weigh historical analogs of early-summer persistence against forecast spread in 7–14 day guidance and official heatwave criteria thresholds. Updated national agency briefings and ensemble runs through early July will likely clarify whether sustained conditions meet market resolution standards.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoParis heat wave by July 31?
Paris heat wave by July 31?
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31 lug 2026
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31 lug 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station is greater than or equal to 35 degrees Celsius for all of 3 consecutive calendar days by July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on the relevant days for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded for each date within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent severe heat across France, including Paris highs near 41°C and official red alerts in late June, combined with Météo-France seasonal outlooks favoring +1–3°C July anomalies, underpins the near-even odds. Model consensus from ECMWF and CFS points to elevated risk of additional heatwave episodes, particularly mid-to-late July, yet exact timing, duration, and peak intensity remain uncertain amid potential steering-pattern shifts or Atlantic cooling. Traders weigh historical analogs of early-summer persistence against forecast spread in 7–14 day guidance and official heatwave criteria thresholds. Updated national agency briefings and ensemble runs through early July will likely clarify whether sustained conditions meet market resolution standards.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station is greater than or equal to 35 degrees Celsius for all of 3 consecutive calendar days by July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on the relevant days for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded for each date within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on the relevant days for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded for each date within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jun 30, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volume
$4Data di fine
31 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 30, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station is greater than or equal to 35 degrees Celsius for all of 3 consecutive calendar days by July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on the relevant days for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded for each date within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent severe heat across France, including Paris highs near 41°C and official red alerts in late June, combined with Météo-France seasonal outlooks favoring +1–3°C July anomalies, underpins the near-even odds. Model consensus from ECMWF and CFS points to elevated risk of additional heatwave episodes, particularly mid-to-late July, yet exact timing, duration, and peak intensity remain uncertain amid potential steering-pattern shifts or Atlantic cooling. Traders weigh historical analogs of early-summer persistence against forecast spread in 7–14 day guidance and official heatwave criteria thresholds. Updated national agency briefings and ensemble runs through early July will likely clarify whether sustained conditions meet market resolution standards.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station is greater than or equal to 35 degrees Celsius for all of 3 consecutive calendar days by July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on the relevant days for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded for each date within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on the relevant days for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded for each date within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4Data di fine
31 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 30, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent severe heat across France, including Paris highs near 41°C and official red alerts in late June, combined with Météo-France seasonal outlooks favoring +1–3°C July anomalies, underpins the near-even odds. Model consensus from ECMWF and CFS points to elevated risk of additional heatwave episodes, particularly mid-to-late July, yet exact timing, duration, and peak intensity remain uncertain amid potential steering-pattern shifts or Atlantic cooling. Traders weigh historical analogs of early-summer persistence against forecast spread in 7–14 day guidance and official heatwave criteria thresholds. Updated national agency briefings and ensemble runs through early July will likely clarify whether sustained conditions meet market resolution standards.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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