**Traders assign an 82% probability to no Supreme Court vacancy occurring in 2026 largely because the two oldest justices, Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas, have shown no signs of stepping down this year.** Alito, in a Wall Street Journal interview published August 7, explicitly stated he plans to serve at least another full term, with the October 2026 term extending into mid-2027. Earlier speculation about an end-of-term retirement in June or July 2026 was fueled by age (Alito at 76, Thomas at 77) and White House discussions, but it was undercut by a retracted NPR report and consistent private indications from sources close to both justices that neither intends to create a vacancy before 2027. No other members of the Court have signaled health or personal developments that would prompt an exit, and Senate confirmation dynamics remain stable under the current Republican majority. Historical patterns of strategic retirements under aligned presidents have not yet materialized here, keeping implied probabilities anchored on continuity through the remainder of the calendar year.