Trump’s continued active governance through executive orders on health policy, immigration enforcement, and other priorities, combined with official medical assessments describing him as fit to serve, underpins trader consensus against resignation by late 2026. High staff turnover in the administration has not extended to the president, and no credible reports indicate health concerns or institutional pressures that would prompt departure before the 2029 term ends. Historical patterns show sitting presidents rarely resign absent acute crises or convictions. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden medical event, successful impeachment proceedings with Senate conviction, or unforeseen personal circumstances, though none currently appear imminent based on verifiable developments.