The crowded field of nine candidates for the Tongatapu 2 by-election on 8 October has produced closely matched probabilities, reflecting vote fragmentation in Tonga’s first-past-the-post system. The vacancy arose after Semisi Sika was unseated by parliament following his 2025 election conviction on bribery and campaign finance violations, with the prior incumbent ‘Uhilamoelangi Fasi opting not to stand. Recent nominations on 2–3 September confirmed a split among local contenders including Malakai Koloamatangi, Samiuela Vea, Alvin Lafu Sika, Mele ‘Amanaki, and Mounu Uaisele, with some prospective entrants withdrawing to consolidate support behind others. Absent recent polling data or dominant endorsements, trader consensus shows no single frontrunner, leaving room for late campaign developments or turnout patterns to shift the outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLei Paasi 32%
Samiuela Vea 29%
Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki 28%
Alvin Lafu Sika 26%
Lei Paasi
32%
Samiuela Vea
29%
Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki
28%
Alvin Lafu Sika
26%
Sione Harvard Tupouniua
26%
Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi
24%
'Olioni Manoa
24%
Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila
24%
Mounu Uaisele
10%
Lei Paasi 32%
Samiuela Vea 29%
Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki 28%
Alvin Lafu Sika 26%
Lei Paasi
32%
Samiuela Vea
29%
Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki
28%
Alvin Lafu Sika
26%
Sione Harvard Tupouniua
26%
Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi
24%
'Olioni Manoa
24%
Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila
24%
Mounu Uaisele
10%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.
If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
Mercato aperto: Sep 9, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.
If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...The crowded field of nine candidates for the Tongatapu 2 by-election on 8 October has produced closely matched probabilities, reflecting vote fragmentation in Tonga’s first-past-the-post system. The vacancy arose after Semisi Sika was unseated by parliament following his 2025 election conviction on bribery and campaign finance violations, with the prior incumbent ‘Uhilamoelangi Fasi opting not to stand. Recent nominations on 2–3 September confirmed a split among local contenders including Malakai Koloamatangi, Samiuela Vea, Alvin Lafu Sika, Mele ‘Amanaki, and Mounu Uaisele, with some prospective entrants withdrawing to consolidate support behind others. Absent recent polling data or dominant endorsements, trader consensus shows no single frontrunner, leaving room for late campaign developments or turnout patterns to shift the outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato



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