The below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, driven by an emerging El Niño pattern expected to boost vertical wind shear across the basin, forms the main factor behind the 63.5% market-implied odds against a Category 4 landfall in the United States before 2027. Colorado State University’s April outlook projects 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and just 2 major hurricanes, yielding a 32% probability of at least one Category 3–5 landfall along the continental U.S. coastline—below the long-term 43% average. The 2025 season reinforced this context by recording no hurricane landfalls at all, the first such occurrence since 2015, as steering patterns diverted storms offshore. National Hurricane Center monitoring and updated model runs through the peak months will provide further clarity on intensification potential and track guidance.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQualche uragano di categoria 4 arriverà negli Stati Uniti prima del 2027?
Qualche uragano di categoria 4 arriverà negli Stati Uniti prima del 2027?
Sì
$327,972 Vol.
$327,972 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$327,972 Vol.
$327,972 Vol.
31 dic 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, driven by an emerging El Niño pattern expected to boost vertical wind shear across the basin, forms the main factor behind the 63.5% market-implied odds against a Category 4 landfall in the United States before 2027. Colorado State University’s April outlook projects 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and just 2 major hurricanes, yielding a 32% probability of at least one Category 3–5 landfall along the continental U.S. coastline—below the long-term 43% average. The 2025 season reinforced this context by recording no hurricane landfalls at all, the first such occurrence since 2015, as steering patterns diverted storms offshore. National Hurricane Center monitoring and updated model runs through the peak months will provide further clarity on intensification potential and track guidance.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Mercato aperto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$327,972Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, driven by an emerging El Niño pattern expected to boost vertical wind shear across the basin, forms the main factor behind the 63.5% market-implied odds against a Category 4 landfall in the United States before 2027. Colorado State University’s April outlook projects 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and just 2 major hurricanes, yielding a 32% probability of at least one Category 3–5 landfall along the continental U.S. coastline—below the long-term 43% average. The 2025 season reinforced this context by recording no hurricane landfalls at all, the first such occurrence since 2015, as steering patterns diverted storms offshore. National Hurricane Center monitoring and updated model runs through the peak months will provide further clarity on intensification potential and track guidance.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$327,972Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, driven by an emerging El Niño pattern expected to boost vertical wind shear across the basin, forms the main factor behind the 63.5% market-implied odds against a Category 4 landfall in the United States before 2027. Colorado State University’s April outlook projects 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and just 2 major hurricanes, yielding a 32% probability of at least one Category 3–5 landfall along the continental U.S. coastline—below the long-term 43% average. The 2025 season reinforced this context by recording no hurricane landfalls at all, the first such occurrence since 2015, as steering patterns diverted storms offshore. National Hurricane Center monitoring and updated model runs through the peak months will provide further clarity on intensification potential and track guidance.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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