The four core Senate contests—Georgia, Maine, Michigan, and North Carolina—remain closely rated toss-ups or leans by major forecasters, with each featuring strong candidates, substantial fundraising, and narrow historical margins in a midterm environment. Georgia’s Jon Ossoff defends a seat in a state carried by the opposing presidential ticket, while Michigan’s open seat after Gary Peters’ retirement, Maine’s Susan Collins incumbency, and North Carolina’s open race after Thom Tillis all show polling volatility and high spending. These structural factors, combined with typical midterm dynamics and the limited path for simultaneous Democratic gains across all four, underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the slight majority for “No.” No single late-breaking development has yet shifted the balance decisively in any contest.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWill Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
45% probabilità
$18,445 Vol.
$18,445 Vol.
3 nov 2026
45% probabilità
$18,445 Vol.
$18,445 Vol.
3 nov 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.The four core Senate contests—Georgia, Maine, Michigan, and North Carolina—remain closely rated toss-ups or leans by major forecasters, with each featuring strong candidates, substantial fundraising, and narrow historical margins in a midterm environment. Georgia’s Jon Ossoff defends a seat in a state carried by the opposing presidential ticket, while Michigan’s open seat after Gary Peters’ retirement, Maine’s Susan Collins incumbency, and North Carolina’s open race after Thom Tillis all show polling volatility and high spending. These structural factors, combined with typical midterm dynamics and the limited path for simultaneous Democratic gains across all four, underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the slight majority for “No.” No single late-breaking development has yet shifted the balance decisively in any contest.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
Mercato aperto: Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$18,445Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.The four core Senate contests—Georgia, Maine, Michigan, and North Carolina—remain closely rated toss-ups or leans by major forecasters, with each featuring strong candidates, substantial fundraising, and narrow historical margins in a midterm environment. Georgia’s Jon Ossoff defends a seat in a state carried by the opposing presidential ticket, while Michigan’s open seat after Gary Peters’ retirement, Maine’s Susan Collins incumbency, and North Carolina’s open race after Thom Tillis all show polling volatility and high spending. These structural factors, combined with typical midterm dynamics and the limited path for simultaneous Democratic gains across all four, underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the slight majority for “No.” No single late-breaking development has yet shifted the balance decisively in any contest.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
Volume
$18,445Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The four core Senate contests—Georgia, Maine, Michigan, and North Carolina—remain closely rated toss-ups or leans by major forecasters, with each featuring strong candidates, substantial fundraising, and narrow historical margins in a midterm environment. Georgia’s Jon Ossoff defends a seat in a state carried by the opposing presidential ticket, while Michigan’s open seat after Gary Peters’ retirement, Maine’s Susan Collins incumbency, and North Carolina’s open race after Thom Tillis all show polling volatility and high spending. These structural factors, combined with typical midterm dynamics and the limited path for simultaneous Democratic gains across all four, underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the slight majority for “No.” No single late-breaking development has yet shifted the balance decisively in any contest.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti