The closely contested 54.5% implied probability for No on Democrats sweeping the core four Senate races in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine reflects competitive individual matchups and structural headwinds three months before the November election. Recent polling shows Democratic candidates holding advantages in North Carolina and narrower or uncertain edges elsewhere amid strong Republican recruitment and fundraising. National generic ballot trends favoring Democrats create upside potential for a sweep, yet historical difficulty in flipping multiple battlegrounds simultaneously, candidate-specific dynamics, and turnout patterns in these states sustain balanced trader assessments. Late-cycle polling shifts, debate performances, or national events could quickly move probabilities in either direction.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWill Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
46% probabilità
$19,184 Vol.
$19,184 Vol.
3 nov 2026
46% probabilità
$19,184 Vol.
$19,184 Vol.
3 nov 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.The closely contested 54.5% implied probability for No on Democrats sweeping the core four Senate races in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine reflects competitive individual matchups and structural headwinds three months before the November election. Recent polling shows Democratic candidates holding advantages in North Carolina and narrower or uncertain edges elsewhere amid strong Republican recruitment and fundraising. National generic ballot trends favoring Democrats create upside potential for a sweep, yet historical difficulty in flipping multiple battlegrounds simultaneously, candidate-specific dynamics, and turnout patterns in these states sustain balanced trader assessments. Late-cycle polling shifts, debate performances, or national events could quickly move probabilities in either direction.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
Mercato aperto: Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$19,184Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.The closely contested 54.5% implied probability for No on Democrats sweeping the core four Senate races in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine reflects competitive individual matchups and structural headwinds three months before the November election. Recent polling shows Democratic candidates holding advantages in North Carolina and narrower or uncertain edges elsewhere amid strong Republican recruitment and fundraising. National generic ballot trends favoring Democrats create upside potential for a sweep, yet historical difficulty in flipping multiple battlegrounds simultaneously, candidate-specific dynamics, and turnout patterns in these states sustain balanced trader assessments. Late-cycle polling shifts, debate performances, or national events could quickly move probabilities in either direction.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
Volume
$19,184Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The closely contested 54.5% implied probability for No on Democrats sweeping the core four Senate races in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine reflects competitive individual matchups and structural headwinds three months before the November election. Recent polling shows Democratic candidates holding advantages in North Carolina and narrower or uncertain edges elsewhere amid strong Republican recruitment and fundraising. National generic ballot trends favoring Democrats create upside potential for a sweep, yet historical difficulty in flipping multiple battlegrounds simultaneously, candidate-specific dynamics, and turnout patterns in these states sustain balanced trader assessments. Late-cycle polling shifts, debate performances, or national events could quickly move probabilities in either direction.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti