OpenAI’s rapid iteration on its GPT-5 series continues to shape trader views on the next frontier model launch. The April 23 release of GPT-5.5 introduced stronger reasoning, agentic coding, and multi-step task handling, building directly on the March GPT-5.4 “Thinking” model and February’s GPT-5.3 Codex update. This cadence reflects OpenAI’s strategy to deliver incremental capability jumps every few weeks rather than waiting for a single massive leap, while staying ahead of Claude Opus 4.7 and Gemini 3 variants. Upcoming catalysts include potential API expansions, enterprise agent features, and any hints from Sam Altman on GPT-6 timelines, all of which could shift implied probabilities if new benchmarks or competitive pressure accelerate the schedule.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWill OpenAI release a new frontier model by...?
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by...?
$10,273 Vol.
30 giu 2026
31 maggio
17%
June 30
85%
September 30
93%
$10,273 Vol.
31 maggio
$2,156 Vol.
17%
June 30
$2,497 Vol.
85%
September 30
$5,620 Vol.
93%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI’s rapid iteration on its GPT-5 series continues to shape trader views on the next frontier model launch. The April 23 release of GPT-5.5 introduced stronger reasoning, agentic coding, and multi-step task handling, building directly on the March GPT-5.4 “Thinking” model and February’s GPT-5.3 Codex update. This cadence reflects OpenAI’s strategy to deliver incremental capability jumps every few weeks rather than waiting for a single massive leap, while staying ahead of Claude Opus 4.7 and Gemini 3 variants. Upcoming catalysts include potential API expansions, enterprise agent features, and any hints from Sam Altman on GPT-6 timelines, all of which could shift implied probabilities if new benchmarks or competitive pressure accelerate the schedule.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: May 1, 2026, 5:56 PM ET
Volume
$10,273Data di fine
30 set 2026Mercato aperto
May 1, 2026, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI’s rapid iteration on its GPT-5 series continues to shape trader views on the next frontier model launch. The April 23 release of GPT-5.5 introduced stronger reasoning, agentic coding, and multi-step task handling, building directly on the March GPT-5.4 “Thinking” model and February’s GPT-5.3 Codex update. This cadence reflects OpenAI’s strategy to deliver incremental capability jumps every few weeks rather than waiting for a single massive leap, while staying ahead of Claude Opus 4.7 and Gemini 3 variants. Upcoming catalysts include potential API expansions, enterprise agent features, and any hints from Sam Altman on GPT-6 timelines, all of which could shift implied probabilities if new benchmarks or competitive pressure accelerate the schedule.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10,273Data di fine
30 set 2026Mercato aperto
May 1, 2026, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s rapid iteration on its GPT-5 series continues to shape trader views on the next frontier model launch. The April 23 release of GPT-5.5 introduced stronger reasoning, agentic coding, and multi-step task handling, building directly on the March GPT-5.4 “Thinking” model and February’s GPT-5.3 Codex update. This cadence reflects OpenAI’s strategy to deliver incremental capability jumps every few weeks rather than waiting for a single massive leap, while staying ahead of Claude Opus 4.7 and Gemini 3 variants. Upcoming catalysts include potential API expansions, enterprise agent features, and any hints from Sam Altman on GPT-6 timelines, all of which could shift implied probabilities if new benchmarks or competitive pressure accelerate the schedule.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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