Anthropic's recent Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 releases have positioned the company as the closest to 1550 on Chatbot Arena, with leading models at 1510-1511 Elo amid strong agentic coding and reasoning benchmarks. Trader sentiment favors the 80% implied probability on no model reaching the threshold in 2026 due to incremental gains rather than rapid jumps, despite OpenAI's GPT-5.6 and xAI's Grok-4.6 trailing just behind at 1507-1509. Competitive dynamics among frontier labs, including Google's Gemini variants and emerging Chinese models like DeepSeek, underscore the uncertainty around further scaling laws delivering the required leap before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'intelligenza artificiale di quale azienda arriverà per la prima volta a 1550 su Chatbot Arena nel 2026?
Nessuno nel 2026 80%
Anthropic 14%
Google 5.9%
OpenAI 1.8%
$114,223 Vol.
$114,223 Vol.

Nessuno nel 2026
80%

Anthropic
14%

6%

OpenAI
2%

xAI
1%

Z.ai
1%

Alibaba
1%

DeepSeek
1%

Mistral
<1%
Nessuno nel 2026 80%
Anthropic 14%
Google 5.9%
OpenAI 1.8%
$114,223 Vol.
$114,223 Vol.

Nessuno nel 2026
80%

Anthropic
14%

6%

OpenAI
2%

xAI
1%

Z.ai
1%

Alibaba
1%

DeepSeek
1%

Mistral
<1%
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Mercato aperto: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's recent Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 releases have positioned the company as the closest to 1550 on Chatbot Arena, with leading models at 1510-1511 Elo amid strong agentic coding and reasoning benchmarks. Trader sentiment favors the 80% implied probability on no model reaching the threshold in 2026 due to incremental gains rather than rapid jumps, despite OpenAI's GPT-5.6 and xAI's Grok-4.6 trailing just behind at 1507-1509. Competitive dynamics among frontier labs, including Google's Gemini variants and emerging Chinese models like DeepSeek, underscore the uncertainty around further scaling laws delivering the required leap before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato



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