Trader consensus in this Polymarket reflects the current Chatbot Arena (LMSYS) leaderboard, where top models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI sit between roughly 1506 and 1525 Elo as of mid-August 2026, well short of the 1550 threshold. The 80% implied probability on “none in 2026” stems from the modest incremental gains recorded over recent months and the limited calendar time remaining for new frontier releases or fine-tunes to close the gap. Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants hold the highest marks and command the strongest 13.5% odds, consistent with their repeated leadership in reasoning and coding benchmarks. Google, OpenAI, and xAI trail with lower probabilities, while smaller labs remain long shots given their current positioning. Any major model drop or capability jump before year-end could shift these odds, but recent release cadence suggests the bar may stay out of reach.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'intelligenza artificiale di quale azienda arriverà per la prima volta a 1550 su Chatbot Arena nel 2026?
Nessuno nel 2026 80%
Anthropic 14%
Google 5.9%
OpenAI 1.8%
$114,223 Vol.
$114,223 Vol.

Nessuno nel 2026
80%

Anthropic
14%

6%

OpenAI
2%

xAI
1%

Z.ai
1%

Alibaba
1%

DeepSeek
1%

Mistral
<1%
Nessuno nel 2026 80%
Anthropic 14%
Google 5.9%
OpenAI 1.8%
$114,223 Vol.
$114,223 Vol.

Nessuno nel 2026
80%

Anthropic
14%

6%

OpenAI
2%

xAI
1%

Z.ai
1%

Alibaba
1%

DeepSeek
1%

Mistral
<1%
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Mercato aperto: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus in this Polymarket reflects the current Chatbot Arena (LMSYS) leaderboard, where top models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI sit between roughly 1506 and 1525 Elo as of mid-August 2026, well short of the 1550 threshold. The 80% implied probability on “none in 2026” stems from the modest incremental gains recorded over recent months and the limited calendar time remaining for new frontier releases or fine-tunes to close the gap. Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants hold the highest marks and command the strongest 13.5% odds, consistent with their repeated leadership in reasoning and coding benchmarks. Google, OpenAI, and xAI trail with lower probabilities, while smaller labs remain long shots given their current positioning. Any major model drop or capability jump before year-end could shift these odds, but recent release cadence suggests the bar may stay out of reach.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato



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