**Trader sentiment strongly favors "None in 2026" at 74.5% implied probability because leading large language models remain clustered below 1525 ELO on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard.** Anthropic's recent Claude Fable 5 (June 2026) and Opus 4.8 Thinking variants top the board around 1508–1510 overall, with specialized arena peaks near 1566, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5-high sits comparably at ~1506; these incremental gains from prior Opus 4.6/4.7 releases have narrowed but not closed the gap to 1550. Google, xAI, and others trail further behind, reflecting slower progress on the capability jumps needed for such an ELO threshold amid typical product timelines and benchmark volatility. With six months left, the market-implied odds highlight the difficulty of rapid scaling without confirmed breakthroughs, positioning Anthropic as the clearest near-term contender at 15.5%.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNone in 2026 78%
Anthropic 15%
Google 5.0%
OpenAI 3.4%
$104,603 Vol.
$104,603 Vol.
31 dic 2026
None in 2026
78%
Anthropic
15%
5%
OpenAI
3%
xAI
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Mistral
<1%
None in 2026 78%
Anthropic 15%
Google 5.0%
OpenAI 3.4%
$104,603 Vol.
$104,603 Vol.
31 dic 2026
None in 2026
$22,342 Vol.
78%
Anthropic
$11,382 Vol.
15%
$10,486 Vol.
5%
OpenAI
$12,744 Vol.
3%
xAI
$8,360 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$11,145 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$8,721 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$10,283 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$9,141 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.**Trader sentiment strongly favors "None in 2026" at 74.5% implied probability because leading large language models remain clustered below 1525 ELO on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard.** Anthropic's recent Claude Fable 5 (June 2026) and Opus 4.8 Thinking variants top the board around 1508–1510 overall, with specialized arena peaks near 1566, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5-high sits comparably at ~1506; these incremental gains from prior Opus 4.6/4.7 releases have narrowed but not closed the gap to 1550.
Google, xAI, and others trail further behind, reflecting slower progress on the capability jumps needed for such an ELO threshold amid typical product timelines and benchmark volatility. With six months left, the market-implied odds highlight the difficulty of rapid scaling without confirmed breakthroughs, positioning Anthropic as the clearest near-term contender at 15.5%.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Mercato aperto: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Volume
$104,603Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.**Trader sentiment strongly favors "None in 2026" at 74.5% implied probability because leading large language models remain clustered below 1525 ELO on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard.** Anthropic's recent Claude Fable 5 (June 2026) and Opus 4.8 Thinking variants top the board around 1508–1510 overall, with specialized arena peaks near 1566, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5-high sits comparably at ~1506; these incremental gains from prior Opus 4.6/4.7 releases have narrowed but not closed the gap to 1550.
Google, xAI, and others trail further behind, reflecting slower progress on the capability jumps needed for such an ELO threshold amid typical product timelines and benchmark volatility. With six months left, the market-implied odds highlight the difficulty of rapid scaling without confirmed breakthroughs, positioning Anthropic as the clearest near-term contender at 15.5%.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volume
$104,603Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader sentiment strongly favors "None in 2026" at 74.5% implied probability because leading large language models remain clustered below 1525 ELO on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard.** Anthropic's recent Claude Fable 5 (June 2026) and Opus 4.8 Thinking variants top the board around 1508–1510 overall, with specialized arena peaks near 1566, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5-high sits comparably at ~1506; these incremental gains from prior Opus 4.6/4.7 releases have narrowed but not closed the gap to 1550. Google, xAI, and others trail further behind, reflecting slower progress on the capability jumps needed for such an ELO threshold amid typical product timelines and benchmark volatility. With six months left, the market-implied odds highlight the difficulty of rapid scaling without confirmed breakthroughs, positioning Anthropic as the clearest near-term contender at 15.5%.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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