The frontier AI model race remains intensely competitive heading into late 2026, with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series currently topping several independent leaderboards on reasoning and coding benchmarks while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro sit within a handful of Elo points. Frequent releases—OpenAI’s April 23 GPT-5.5 update, Anthropic’s Opus 4.7 rollout, and xAI’s Grok 4.3 beta—have kept performance gaps narrow, shifting trader focus to which lab can sustain incremental gains through year-end. Key catalysts ahead include expected summer or fall iterations from all four labs, potential context-window expansions, and developer ecosystem momentum that could tip aggregated benchmarks. The market reflects real capital betting on this ongoing technical convergence rather than any single breakthrough.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWhich companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
$14,200 Vol.
31 dic 2026
77%
OpenAI
41%
xAI
21%
ByteDance
15%
Meta
14%
Z.ai
11%
DeepSeek
10%
Microsoft
10%
Alibaba
9%
Moonshot
9%
Baidu
9%
Amazon
9%
Mistral
8%
Meituan
7%
$14,200 Vol.
$1,874 Vol.
77%
OpenAI
$3,368 Vol.
41%
xAI
$3,158 Vol.
21%
ByteDance
$1,157 Vol.
15%
Meta
$881 Vol.
14%
Z.ai
$82 Vol.
11%
DeepSeek
$440 Vol.
10%
Microsoft
$100 Vol.
10%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
9%
Moonshot
$320 Vol.
9%
Baidu
$102 Vol.
9%
Amazon
$86 Vol.
9%
Mistral
$1,448 Vol.
8%
Meituan
$1,183 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.The frontier AI model race remains intensely competitive heading into late 2026, with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series currently topping several independent leaderboards on reasoning and coding benchmarks while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro sit within a handful of Elo points. Frequent releases—OpenAI’s April 23 GPT-5.5 update, Anthropic’s Opus 4.7 rollout, and xAI’s Grok 4.3 beta—have kept performance gaps narrow, shifting trader focus to which lab can sustain incremental gains through year-end. Key catalysts ahead include expected summer or fall iterations from all four labs, potential context-window expansions, and developer ecosystem momentum that could tip aggregated benchmarks. The market reflects real capital betting on this ongoing technical convergence rather than any single breakthrough.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercato aperto: Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
Volume
$14,200Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.The frontier AI model race remains intensely competitive heading into late 2026, with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series currently topping several independent leaderboards on reasoning and coding benchmarks while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro sit within a handful of Elo points. Frequent releases—OpenAI’s April 23 GPT-5.5 update, Anthropic’s Opus 4.7 rollout, and xAI’s Grok 4.3 beta—have kept performance gaps narrow, shifting trader focus to which lab can sustain incremental gains through year-end. Key catalysts ahead include expected summer or fall iterations from all four labs, potential context-window expansions, and developer ecosystem momentum that could tip aggregated benchmarks. The market reflects real capital betting on this ongoing technical convergence rather than any single breakthrough.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$14,200Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The frontier AI model race remains intensely competitive heading into late 2026, with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series currently topping several independent leaderboards on reasoning and coding benchmarks while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro sit within a handful of Elo points. Frequent releases—OpenAI’s April 23 GPT-5.5 update, Anthropic’s Opus 4.7 rollout, and xAI’s Grok 4.3 beta—have kept performance gaps narrow, shifting trader focus to which lab can sustain incremental gains through year-end. Key catalysts ahead include expected summer or fall iterations from all four labs, potential context-window expansions, and developer ecosystem momentum that could tip aggregated benchmarks. The market reflects real capital betting on this ongoing technical convergence rather than any single breakthrough.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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